Investors are probably still trying to figure out what to make of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.98%), or SpaceX, stock. It reached a high of $225.64 per share less than a week after its June 12 debut at $150 per share. However, a recent pullback has taken it to around $161 per share as of this writing, and it is unclear where it will go in the near term.
When looking ahead one year, we can assume that SpaceX will probably no longer benefit from post-IPO hype. Still, given the state of the company, the stock is more likely to struggle than prosper. Here's why.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The current state of SpaceX
Investors have taken to SpaceX because it incorporates many of Elon Musk's most successful companies, none of which are named Tesla. By buying this industrials stock that some might better classify as a communications stock, one invests in a space division that now dominates rocket launches, a connectivity business that includes satellite internet provider Starlink, and Musk's AI company, Grok.
SpaceX is also on track for accelerated growth. In the first quarter of 2026, it earned $4.7 billion in revenue, a 16% yearly increase, though that comparatively modest increase is likely an anomaly. Revenue was $18.7 billion in 2025, growing by 34% annually.
Analysts forecast 85% revenue growth in 2027, and even though it reported losses in its publicly available financial statements, they forecast a turn to profitability in 2027. Such factors will likely continue to support a premium valuation.
Still, since it appears overvalued right now, the question is how much of a premium investors will support. It is difficult to ignore that SpaceX stock trades at a trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 106. In comparison, Tesla trades at about 15 times sales, and Micron Technology, whose revenue growth is well into the triple digits, currently trades at a 12 P/S ratio. Even Palantir Technologies, which has commanded an eye-popping premium since late 2024, trades at a 67 sales multiple.
Considering SpaceX's valuation, anything can happen over the next year. However, given the size of SpaceX's premium, the sales multiple is more likely to fall than rise over the next 12 months, which does not bode well for SpaceX stock during that time.
NASDAQ: SPCX
Key Data Points
SpaceX in one year
Although anything can happen with SpaceX stock over the next 12 months, investors should probably expect a pullback.
Admittedly, the 85% revenue growth forecast makes SpaceX stock likely to maintain a premium price. That growth will also reduce the P/S ratio if the stock price stays the same, potentially easing valuation concerns and easing longer-term performance worries.
Unfortunately, triple-digit P/S ratios are extremely rare and price a stock for perfection, meaning any bad news will likely pressure the stock price. Thus, investors may need to exercise patience amid the likely struggles the stock faces over the next year.
