For years, software specialist Tyler Technologies (TYL +1.46%) enjoyed a reputation as a company that was difficult to displace due to its niche public-sector focus. That changed last year, when investors fled from software names broadly in fear of the disruption the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) would have on their business models.
The once-resilient stock has now fallen by 51% from the high it touched in February 2025. That sell-off was understandable given the uncertainty software companies face. In Tyler's case, the market is worried that large language models will allow government agencies to build custom tools that can do what its products do, or adopt cheaper alternatives. This would erode Tyler's entrenched position and permanently alter its growth trajectory.
Despite the concerns, management recently raised its 2030 revenue target, and said it now expects to surpass $1 billion in free cash flow by the end of the decade. Given that its market cap is just $12 billion, and considering that the public sector is typically slow to adopt new technology, Tyler may be one software stock worth adding to your portfolio.
Image source: Getty Images.
Who needs agentic loops when you can do cloud "flips"?
The optimism from leadership stems from Tyler's cloud "flip" initiative, which is shifting its government client from using software hosted on on-premises hardware to software-as-a-service (SaaS) subscriptions hosted in the cloud, turning lower-margin maintenance revenue into higher-margin recurring revenue.
On average, every on-premises client that migrates to the cloud generates 1.7 times more revenue for Tyler while adding to its multiyear contracted revenue stream. With an installed base of over 16,000 clients and a target to convert 85% of them by 2030, the runway is significant.
Management projects that its peak flip volumes will occur from 2027 through 2029. This shift should improve margins by reducing maintenance work on its legacy on-premises products and increasing cross-selling opportunities.
The company's average client currently uses about three of its products, a figure it aims to increase to 10 to 12 by selling additional modules like payments, fire prevention, and document automation.
Some risks are worth taking
During its June investor day presentation, the software provider raised its 2030 targets to $3.35 billion in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) and $1.15 billion in free cash flow. To hit those targets would require ARR to grow at an average annual rate of around 10%.
The caution around the stock comes not only from the likelihood of a more competitive market but also from where its next leg of growth will come from once the majority of cloud flips are complete. Management points to its ability to cross-sell, but predicting customer demand for software that far into the future is more of a side note than an investing thesis.
While the company is not immune to the impacts of technology shifts, its customers are unlikely to abandon their court systems or property tax software for AI-driven alternatives anytime soon. Government procurement cycles are notoriously slow, which will give the company time to execute on its cloud strategy and adapt to the changing landscape.
NYSE: TYL
Key Data Points
The stock is trading at roughly 25 times expected forward earnings, down from a five-year average in the mid-40s, and 21 times trailing free cash flow. As such, the expectations baked into the stock are far lower than they've been in the past. While the market is unlikely to bid up its shares in the near term, Tyler is priced at a level where patient investors can comfortably begin building a position.
