Micron Technology (MU 7.69%) has had a phenomenal 2026 so far, rising around 240%, though it was up around 300% until a few days ago before artificial intelligence (AI)-centric stocks started to sell off. Regardless, Micron has had a great run, and it isn't looking to slow down anytime soon.
Micron recently announced another jaw-dropping quarter with huge growth and incredible expectations for the following quarter, dropping huge news that tight market conditions could last until 2028. If that occurs, Micron's stock could be primed for a major run, potentially positioning it to become the next Nvidia (NVDA 1.51%).
But is that possible? Let's see what it would take.
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Nvidia will be tough to catch, but Micron is trying its hardest
Micron fabricates both NAND and DRAM memory. NAND memory is used in long-term storage devices such as solid-state drives (SSDs). In contrast, DRAM is used for high-speed memory, as needed by Nvidia's GPUs to rapidly access information as it's processed.
There has been strong demand for both types of memory due to the massive data center build-out, but supply hasn't kept up with this unprecedented demand. As a result, prices for memory chips have skyrocketed, allowing Micron to profit from the shortage.
As mentioned, new capacity for many in this industry won't be online until 2027 or later, creating a low supply of inventory for at least the next year and a half. That could lead to even higher memory chip prices, as demand for these devices isn't slowing down.
Nvidia has a strong read on data center build-out plans, as many clients are placing orders for devices well in advance of when they need them so they can quickly get them online once the data center infrastructure is ready. While the AI hyperscalers plan to spend $650 billion on data center capital expenditures this year, next year that figure could be over $1 trillion. That will lead to even higher demand for memory chips, as well as for Nvidia GPUs.
NASDAQ: MU
Key Data Points
In Micron's latest quarter, DRAM accounted for around 76% of total sales, with NAND accounting for the rest. So, for Micron to surpass Nvidia, its NAND sales would need to rise much faster than DRAM, since DRAM will likely grow at a similar rate to GPU demand.
I don't see that happening, but that doesn't mean Micron won't be a great stock to own. Next quarter, it expects $50 billion in revenue, or about half of what Nvidia is expected to generate. Those are still impressive figures, and I won't be surprised to see Micron keep climbing the ladder toward Nvidia. However, it will likely never catch up, as Nvidia benefits from similar tailwinds to Micron.
But how close can it get?
Micron could be a much larger company by this time next year
Because the memory chip market is cyclical, it is often difficult to assign it a regular valuation. This plays into the analysis, as Micron would fare far better if the market assigned it a normal premium. So, let's analyze Micron's stock in two ways. I'll assign it a 15x earnings premium and a 25x earnings premium to see what the range of outcomes could be.
Micron operates on a non-standard fiscal year calendar, and its FY 2026 ends in August. So, I'll utilize FY 2027 projections. Wall Street analysts project earnings per share (EPS) of $149.64 next year, with the highest estimate at $221.27. At the midpoint, Micron's stock would trade between $2,244 and $3,741 per share, depending on whether it trades at 15 to 25 times earnings.
That equates to a market capitalization of about $2.5 trillion to $4.2 trillion -- not far off from Nvidia's current $4.7 trillion. Now, if the earnings come in at the high end of the projection and the stock trades for 25 times earnings, Micron's stock could be valued at $6.2 trillion -- a greater figure than Nvidia.
However, this won't happen in a vacuum because Nvidia's stock will likely rise if Micron's does. I don't think Micron can catch Nvidia, but it still a great company to invest in.
