Let's cut to the chase. An investment in Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.43%) today could very well grow your net worth tenfold if -- stay with me -- annual revenue grows at an average rate of about 42% for the next 15 years, or 23% over the next 25 years.
If either came true, annual revenue would reach about $3.6 trillion, which is strikingly close to Morgan Stanley's 2040 forecast of $3.4 trillion for SpaceX.
With this in mind, let's take a closer look at my reasoning to see if this space stock is worth buying today.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
What would it take for SpaceX to grow tenfold?
SpaceX came to the market in mid-June with a lofty valuation. After its debut, the stock followed a ballistic trajectory, launching vertically for a few days before tilting to an angle and dropping sharply. The stock trades at $125, more or less, roughly 44% below its all-time high.
The company reported about $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue, which, broken out by business segment, was composed of $11.4 billion from connectivity, $4.1 billion from space, and $3.2 billion from artificial intelligence. With its $1.8 trillion market valuation, SpaceX trades at about 100 times sales, which means expectations are high, and revenue growth is already assumed.
NASDAQ: SPCX
Key Data Points
Analysts at both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predict that SpaceX's annual revenue will rise above $300 billion by 2030, which, yes, is only a few years from now. If these firms are even remotely correct, then SpaceX's annual revenue could grow at a staggering rate of about 77%.
Morgan Stanley, as I mentioned above, goes even further: Analysts at the firm project annual revenue of $3.4 trillion in 2040, driven by astonishing growth in the business's AI segment.
Here's where a tenfold gain in SpaceX could hypothetically come into play. If annual revenue were $3.6 trillion in 2040 -- slightly higher than Morgan Stanley's prediction -- then a price-to-sales ratio of 5 would put its market cap at about $18 trillion. That's about 10 times what it is today.
That sounds incredible. Could SpaceX really be worth $18 trillion in 2040?
If that sounds incredible, that's because it is. No company in the world is worth $18 trillion. Only one, Nvidia, has traded above a $5 trillion valuation, and only two, Amazon and Walmart, have trailing-12-month revenue topping $700 billion.
SpaceX, however, is an extraordinary company, one that could break through barriers that once felt impenetrable. If Starlink becomes a dominant global communications network, if Starship radically lowers the cost of reaching orbit, if its AI segment grows into a multi-trillion-dollar business, SpaceX could eventually reach a point no company has reached before.
Just be careful not to over-speculate. If any one of these three businesses performs poorly -- I'm looking at you, Grok -- the tenfold-return scenario could fall straight out of the sky. Indeed, never forget (for now) that this trillion-dollar company is generating less than $20 billion in revenue. Size your positions according to your risk tolerance, or wait for the valuation to come back down to earth before jumping in.
