IonQ (IONQ +0.25%) just received final regulatory approval for one of its most important deals to date: the acquisition of SkyWater Technology. SkyWater is the largest exclusively U.S.-based semiconductor foundry and is recognized by the Department of Defense as a trusted foundry.
The deal gives IonQ full control of its supply chain. It now has a factory to manufacture its chips, eliminating the need to rely on outside suppliers. In light of this acquisition, it's a good time to consider where IonQ will be in a year.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The numbers are trending up
Financially, IonQ stands out among pure-play quantum computing companies. Revenue growth is accelerating, as IonQ reported sales of $64.7 million in the first quarter of 2026, a year-over-year increase of 755%. Its remaining performance obligations, meaning future contracted revenue not yet recorded on an income statement, hit a record $470 million. The results were good enough for IonQ to raise full-year revenue guidance to between $260 million and $270 million.
That's a stark difference from IonQ's main competitors: D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, and Quantum Computing. They all had revenue of less than $5 million in their most recent reported quarters. Multiple companies are dedicated to quantum computing systems, but only IonQ has achieved commercial success to date.
IonQ also has a solid balance sheet, with $3.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments. With plenty of cash reserves, substantial revenue growth, and now a major acquisition, IonQ has a strong bull case over the next year.
The risk could impact IonQ's upside
While there's a lot to like about IonQ, it's still a high-risk investment. It's burning cash: Operating cash flow was negative $151 million in the first quarter, and management is guiding for a full-year adjusted EBITDA loss of $310 million to $330 million. The cash reserves give it a long runway, but this is a company that has had to spend heavily to keep scaling.
NYSE: IONQ
Key Data Points
IonQ stock is also expensive, trading at 55 times trailing sales as of July 29. That's in the same range as Palantir Technologies, the poster child for expensive stocks, but well below its competitors. D-Wave and Rigetti both trade at over 400 times trailing sales, for comparison. Still, high valuations often lead to a correction, which has already been happening this year, with quantum computing companies and tech stocks trading at a premium.
Where will IonQ be in one year?
Wall Street analysts expect IonQ to perform well over the next 12 months, but there's a wide range of forecasts, with a per-share low of $48.50 and a high of $100. The average is $69.31, which would represent over 100% upside at IonQ's current share price.
I think there's a good chance IonQ will continue to exceed revenue expectations and deliver positive results for shareholders. With that in mind, this could be an opportunity to buy the dip on one of the top quantum computing stocks. However, IonQ will likely remain volatile, so size any investments in it accordingly.
