SpaceX (SPCX +6.14%) went public at $135 per share on June 12. Its stock soared to a record high of $225.64 on June 16, but it trades at about $110 as of this writing. Three major issues are driving its stock lower: its sky-high valuation (still at 76 times its 2025 sales), the staggering losses in its AI division, and expectations for its float to roughly triple by December.
Of these three headwinds, the last one is the most unpredictable because it could limit its upside potential as more insiders cash out. Let's see why that's such a major problem.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why will SpaceX's float skyrocket by the end of 2026?
SpaceX only sold about 5% of its shares in its IPO. However, it won't bar its insiders, early investors, and large institutional investors from selling their shares with a traditional 180-day lockup period. Instead, it will allow those investors to sell their shares in several waves.
The first wave -- which unlocked 20% of its shares -- occurred on Aug. 6, the second trading day after its second-quarter earnings report on Aug. 4. It will unlock another 7% of its shares on Aug. 20, Sept. 9, Sept. 24, Oct. 9, and Oct. 24. On the second trading day after its third-quarter earnings report, it will unlock 28% of its shares. On Dec. 8, it will unlock all of its remaining shares.
All of those lockup expirations could drive SpaceX's stock lower -- so investors might want to wait for that smoke to clear before buying it as a long-term investment.
