One of this year's biggest surprises has to be Target (TGT +1.55%). The discount retailer entered 2026 with three consecutive years of slightly declining sales and a new CEO recruited from inside the company. Target was losing market share to its offline and online competition. Unlike its red-and-white bullseye logo, the chain itself seemed off the mark.
More than seven months later, and Target stock is booming. The shares are up 53% year to date, zooming past many of its publicly traded rivals that continue to grow faster than Target. This might seem like an interesting time to cash out and move on, but Wall Street pros beg to differ.
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Target practice
Over the past three weeks, at least seven analysts have jacked up their price targets. The latest move came this week, with TD Cowen boosting its goal from $130 to $155 on Monday morning. Late last week, it was Michael Lasser at UBS who jacked up his Target target price from $144 to $166. The Street-high price target on the shares is $170, which is remarkable because it represents just 14% upside from current levels.
Analysts are trying to keep up with the shares, but it feels more like guarded optimism. With Target set to report its fiscal second-quarter results on Wednesday morning next week, the recent scramble for higher adjustments feels more like keeping up with the stock's momentum than a bullish declaration. It could be worse, of course.
NYSE: TGT
Key Data Points
More than just lip service
CEO Michael Fiddelke kicked off his tenure at the helm this year with a plan for improvement. He targeted four areas for the "cheap chic" retailer to achieve a turnaround:
- Merchandising authority
- Elevating and differentiating the shopping experience
- Advancing technology
- Investing in Target's teams and communities
Announcing $2 billion in incremental spending on store renovations and operational improvements was his way of putting his company's money to work where his mouth was. Next week, we will find out where the plan is just two quarters into his reign, but the early returns are encouraging.
Fiddelke began 2026 by projecting 2% growth in net sales, which was noteworthy because it would end a streak of three fiscal years of declines. The first quarter went better than expected. Net sales rose 6.7% with a 4.4% bump in comparable traffic and gains across all six of its core merchandising categories.
Target would double its full-year sales growth target to 4%. It boosted its quarterly dividend, something it has now done for 55 consecutive years.
Target is earning this year's upticks. It just needs to make sure that momentum is still growing in next week's report and that Fiddelke's surprisingly strong first quarter as CEO wasn't just beginner's luck.
Fiddelke has a plan. He has Wall Street pros on his side. There's a lot at stake with its next financial update.
