Intuitive Machines (LUNR +8.26%), a developer of lunar landers and exploration vehicles, went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in Feb. 2023. Its stock started trading at $10 and closed at a record high of $81.99 just a few days later.
At its peak, Intuitive Machines' market cap reached $1.48 billion, which was nearly 19 times the $80 million in revenue it would generate in 2023. That frothy valuation set it up for a steep pullback as investors fretted over its dilutive stock offerings and persistent losses. SpaceX's (SPCX -0.91%) IPO this June also drew investors away from smaller space stocks.
That's why its stock trades at $16 today. But over the past week, its shares have quietly rallied more than 20%. Is the market finally turning bullish on this oft-overlooked stock?
Image source: Getty Images.
How fast is Intuitive Machines growing?
Intuitive Machines generates most of its revenue from its contracts with NASA. It has sent two lunar landers to NASA so far: IM-1 in 2024 and IM-2 in 2025.
IM-1 marked NASA's first successful moon landing since 1972, and it helped Intuitive secure more lunar logistics and near-space network services (NSNS) contracts from NASA. IM-1 and IM-2 weren't flawless missions, since they both tipped over after landing on the moon, but they successfully transmitted data back to Earth before their solar panels ran out of power.
Intuitive plans to launch its third and fourth lunar landers, IM-3 and IM-4, in the second half of 2026 and 2027, respectively. By the end of the second quarter of 2026, its backlog had swelled to $1.8 billion as it secured more contracts from NASA, the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA), and the Missile Defense Agency. Its acquisitions of Lanteris, which produces satellites and other spacecraft, and Goonhilly Earth Station, a major satellite and deep-space communications facility, should further diversify its business and boost its revenue.
NASDAQ: LUNR
Key Data Points
Initiative Machines' revenue growth has been lumpy since its market debut, due to its dependence on milestone payments, timed missions, and acquisitions.
But from 2025 to 2028, analysts expect its revenue to grow at an 89% CAGR from $210 million to $1.41 billion. They also expect its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to turn positive in 2026 and grow at a 47% CAGR to $77 million by 2028. That growth should be driven by its IM-3 and IM-4 launches, the conversion of its growing backlog into revenue, and its expansion into the defense sector.
With an enterprise value of $2.7 billion, Intuitive looks like a bargain at less than three times this year's sales. That's probably why it's finally attracting more attention as SpaceX -- which still trades at 42 times this year's sales -- struggles to stay above its IPO price.
