Over time, Eli Lilly (LLY +0.56%) has built a solid portfolio of drugs across treatment areas, and that has resulted in earnings growth. But in recent years, one particular type of drug has supercharged revenue. This market is heading toward a value of almost $100 billion by 2030. I'm talking about the area of weight loss drugs, and particularly in the GLP-1 category.
Lilly makes tirzepatide, which is sold for type 2 diabetes under the name Mounjaro and for weight loss under the name Zepbound.Both are injectable products. The pharma giant also recently gained approval for its first oral weight loss drug, Foundayo.
Lilly dominates the weight loss drug market, but it still faces competition from the original market leader, Novo Nordisk, maker of Ozempic and Wegovy. The two companies are vying for leadership in the next wave of GLP-1 growth -- this is as Medicare coverage of the drugs begins and as oral weight loss drugs gain momentum.
Which company will win? Lilly just announced game-changing news. Let's check it out.
Image source: Getty Images.
Lilly gained leadership of the GLP-1 market in 2025
First, a quick look at the evolution of the GLP-1 market so far. As mentioned, Novo hit the market first with its GLP-1 drugs, leading in the space -- but as of late 2024, Lilly gained ground and slipped ahead early last year. As of Lilly's most recent quarterly earnings report, the company held 60% of the U.S. market, compared to Novo's 38% share.
Why have these drugs become so popular? In clinical trials and in the real world, they've helped individuals struggling with their weight shed pounds safely and rather quickly. Over a period of months, users generally see impressive results. Injectable GLP-1 drugs are self-administered weekly, and the recently approved oral products are taken daily.
GLP-1 drugs work by stimulating hormonal pathways involved in appetite and the management of blood sugar levels -- as a result, patients lose weight.
The popularity of these drugs has resulted in high demand and blockbuster revenue for Lilly. The pharma powerhouse delivered about $14 billion in revenue from Mounjaro and Zepbound in the recent quarter. That's on a total of $23 billion in revenue, so the portfolio is a clear growth driver for the company.
Though many biotechs and pharmas are exploring GLP-1 candidates in clinical trials, for the moment, competition in the actual marketplace centers around Lilly and Novo. Now let's consider Lilly's game-changing news -- it actually comes in two parts.
Medicare recently began coverage of GLP-1 drugs
A couple of months ago, Medicare began offering coverage of GLP-1 drugs. Lilly chief Dave Ricks told CNBC last week that 700,000 new seniors have started this class of drugs since the beginning of Medicare coverage -- and Lilly is capturing seven out of 10 prescriptions.
Separately, Lilly said 30% of new oral GLP-1 patients in the U.S. market have chosen Foundayo, according to Reuters.
NYSE: LLY
Key Data Points
These two pieces of news are game-changing for Lilly as we've reached a key turning point in the weight loss drug market: the arrival of Medicare coverage and the launch of oral weight loss drugs. At this moment, we may expect to see Lilly maintain its lead or Novo step ahead. Though Novo's Wegovy pill has won more prescriptions than Foundayo, it's important to keep in mind that it launched a few months earlier than the Lilly product. So the numbers we're seeing from Lilly so far are very encouraging.
On top of this, Ricks' recent statement confirms the company's leadership in the overall GLP-1 market at this key turning point.
What does this mean for investors? This is fantastic news for Lilly shareholders and investors who aim to buy the stock, as it shows the positive momentum continues. Patients and doctors are frequently opting for Lilly drugs as this new patient population -- Medicare beneficiaries -- expands the revenue opportunity. All of this means now is a great time to pick up or hold onto Lilly stock as this new growth story unfolds.
