Tesla (TSLA -1.29%) is expected to release its third-quarter delivery figures later this week. Wall Street can't make up its mind about what investors should expect.
Analyst estimates range from 421,758 to 482,000 deliveries. Last quarter, Tesla missed consensus estimates by roughly 60,000 units, so the low end of that range is certainly in play. Two banks -- Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase -- recently cut their forecasts ahead of the release.
This creates the opportunity for Tesla to exceed expectations. There are three ways for it to surprise the market, any of which could send shares sharply higher.
Image source: Tesla.
This is how Tesla can exceed expectations this quarter
Tesla's auto sales fell year over year in both 2024 and 2025. And while 2026 has stabilized somewhat, several pressures remain. One of the biggest is last year's expiration of EV tax credits. Other automakers have reduced EV production to reflect a slowdown in EV adoption. Tesla has cut prices to remain competitive. With Model Y and Model 3 sales comprising more than 90% of auto sales, delivery figures for these models will be critical to how investors digest the ongoing reduction in Federal incentives.
Apart from the obvious, there are two other numbers that could give the market a surprise dose of optimism.
Tesla Semi sales remain largely insignificant. But Semi orders have grown sharply this year, with Tesla holding a dedicated Semi event earlier this month. While I don't expect anything major on this front, the opportunity to present a long-awaited delivery ramp-up for its Semi platform could give the market something to cheer.
NASDAQ: TSLA
Key Data Points
Tesla also began production of its Cybercab robotaxi this year. The company has already begun signing up customers to deploy independent robotaxi fleets. So far, the rollout has been limited to Tesla's own robotaxi network rather than external customer deliveries. I don't expect this to change this quarter. But if I did, then it likely wouldn't come as a surprise to the market.
Eventually, external Cybercab deliveries will begin. Will it be this quarter? Likely not. But it's something I'll be watching closely.
