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Not Ready to Belly Up to CEDC

By Stephen D. Simpson, Simpson, – Updated Nov 15, 2016 at 6:35PM

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Still expensive, still promising; a Fool patiently lies in wait.

Serve no wine before its time, and buy no stock before it's cheap.

OK, so the second part doesn't roll off the tongue quite so neatly. But dip into some of Central European Distribution's (NASDAQ:CEDC) stock in trade, and you might not mind so much.

Sales were just fine -- reported revenue rose 27%, and while the company didn't break out organic growth, I'd say that "flat-to-low-single-digit" is not a bad guess. Margins also expanded notably, but again, that has more to do with the benefits of the big acquisitions.

Things get a little more confusing at the GAAP/non-GAAP net income line. By regular accounting rules, net income was up 70%, and earnings per share jumped by more than 18%. Strip out the benefit of some foreign currency/hedge items, and net income growth was just 6% and earnings per share were actually lower than the year-ago period.

The big culprit here isn't too hard to find. The company took on a big pile o' debt to become the largest producer, distributor, and importer of spirits in Poland; that added interest expense is chewing away the income, aided by the dilution from the stock component of the deal. I'm still confident that the acquisitions will pay off, but it'll take some time.

I did take away two other interesting items from the conference call. First, the company is apparently still quite keen on buying wholesalers/distributors in Poland. Second, it made what I believe is the first mention of looking at opportunities to expand elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe. Now, all of this seems logical, but I'd suggest keeping an eye on the financial statements in the meantime -- adding too much debt, or diluting today's shareholders too far, may not be a fair trade for further expansion.

In the meantime, these shares are just a little too expensive for me. Granted, there aren't a lot of choices these days -- Diageo (NYSE:DEO) seems a bit pricey, Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) has some organic growth issues, and Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD) is still suffering from a weak beer market. With that in mind, I'd invite my fellow Fools to keep an eye on CEDC, but perhaps look outside the U.S. and Europe for better beverage investment options.

Diageo is a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation. Anheuser-Busch is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. Check out our entire suite of newsletters by clickinghere.

Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).

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Stocks Mentioned

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV Stock Quote
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV
BUD
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Diageo plc
DEO
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Constellation Brands, Inc. Stock Quote
Constellation Brands, Inc.
STZ
$232.66 (0.60%) $1.40

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