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Lilly Wilts

By Stephen D. Simpson, Simpson, – Updated Nov 15, 2016 at 6:08PM

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Neither the valuation nor the pipeline makes for a compelling investment case.

Funny what Wall Street will decide to react to when earnings come around. Take the case today of Lilly (NYSE:LLY) -- the stock is down today, most likely because they steered revenue growth guidance to the lower end of an earlier range. So never mind the less-than-stellar pipeline and the valuation, let's sell because growth will be 7% instead of 8%. I mean, I'm no fan of Lilly, but I still can't help but laugh at the Street's obsession with a single penny or percentage point.

All things considered, there was really nothing wrong with the quarter. Sales rose 5%, new product sales came in nicely (up 48% and nearly one-quarter of the total), and adjusted income came in better than last year's by a low teens percentage.

This being a big pharmaceutical company, I'm sure there will be plenty of analysis and regurgitation on the performance of individual drugs, so I'll chime in, too. Zyprexa and Cymbalta both did OK -- and analysts have certainly been concerned about competition from Bristol-Myers (NYSE:BMY), AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN), Forest (NYSE:FRX), and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) with these important brands.

Diabetes care, though, was less impressive. Sales rose only 5%, and Byetta sales were constrained by insufficient supply. I guess that's a mixed blessing for Lilly and the drug's developer AmylinPharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AMLN). It's great that demand for this drug has been so strong, but it's frustrating to think that money is being left on the table because of inadequate supply, particularly when companies like Merck (NYSE:MRK) and Novartis (NYSE:NVS) are readying drugs that might chip into Byetta's growth a bit.

When I look at Lilly shares, I still can't get all that excited about them. Even acknowledging the long-term potential of investigational drugs like Arxxant (which the company announced it will co-market with Alcon (NYSE:ACL)), and a long-acting form of Byetta's active compound, I just don't see the valuation tradeoff. As a result, there are still several other big pharmaceutical companies that I'd buy ahead of Lilly.

For more pharm-fresh Foolishness:

Pfizer is an Inside Value recommendation, and Lilly and Merck are Income Investor picks. Whatever your investing style, the Fool has a newsletter for you.

Fool contributor Stephen Simpson owns shares of Amylin Pharmaceuticals but has no financial interest in any other stocks mentioned (which means he's neither long nor short the shares).

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Stocks Mentioned

Merck & Co., Inc. Stock Quote
Merck & Co., Inc.
MRK
$86.78 (-0.83%) $0.73
Eli Lilly and Company Stock Quote
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY
$311.46 (0.19%) $0.59
AstraZeneca PLC Stock Quote
AstraZeneca PLC
AZN
$54.58 (-3.07%) $-1.73
Pfizer Inc. Stock Quote
Pfizer Inc.
PFE
$44.08 (-1.10%) $0.49
Novartis AG Stock Quote
Novartis AG
NVS
$76.01 (-1.47%) $-1.13
Bristol Myers Squibb Company Stock Quote
Bristol Myers Squibb Company
BMY
$70.71 (-0.81%) $0.58

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