Dueling Fools: GlaxoSmithKline Bear Rebuttal

After reading Brian's Bullish opener to this round of Dueling Fools, I'm even more convinced that now is as good a time as any to establish a position in GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK), as short-term concerns are weighing on what looks to be a stable long-term outlook.

However, I'm still not certain that Glaxo's outlook is strong enough to warrant a bullish outlook, especially compared with other health-care investment alternatives. Brian did point out Glaxo's strong drug pipeline, with 158 compounds in development and nearly 20% in phase 3 trials, meaning they are close to coming to market should the last phase in clinical trials prove successful.

Hopefully, Brian quantifies in his side of the rebuttals what Glaxo's pipeline might mean for growth, because as far as I can tell it won't do more than lead to annual sales improvements of a couple of percent in the years to come. Earnings growth will likely be higher, but it's hard to grow and spend billions in research and development to keep the pipeline full of potential when the sales base is $46 billion.

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) is seeing the full effects of the law of large numbers, and its Lipitor drug will soon succumb to generic competition from the likes of Teva Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:TEVA). But, as long as it can offset rapidly falling Lipitor sales around 2010, its current aggressive cost-cutting moves should only serve to enhance the stock's long-term appeal as it comes out a leaner, more efficient pharma giant.

Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) is a biotech giant but has similar characteristics to large pharmaceutical firms. It is growing much faster than Pfizer and Glaxo and posts impressive cash flow generation, all at a reasonable valuation. In other words, I am finding better opportunities to use short-term pain and establish positions in companies with better long-term potential, in my opinion.  

Wait! You're not done with this Duel. Go back and read the other arguments, then vote for a winner.

Pfizer is a recommendation of Motley Fool Inside Value. You can find out why with a 30-day free trial. Glaxo is a Motley Fool Income Investor pick.

Fool contributor Ryan Fuhrmann is long shares of Pfizer and Amgen but has no financial interest in any other company mentioned. Feel free to email him with feedback or to discuss any companies mentioned further. The Fool has an ironclad disclosure policy.