Friday's OPEC production cut was a pitch we all saw coming. Unfortunately it'll be a big surprise if it turns out to result in anything close to a homerun for either the cartel or the consuming nations.
Here why I'm viewing the move that way: First of all, if you assume that global crude demand today is about 86.5 million barrels a day, the 1.5 million barrels-per-day cut represents about 1.7% of the total, probably not enough to make a difference in the face of weakening global markets and a strengthening dollar.
Secondly, and every bit as importantly, the agreement among the members apparently calls for less than a third -- about 466,000 barrels a day -- to represent Saudi Arabia's quota. Looking at other members of the group, Iran, for instance, is pegged to cut its output by slightly less than 200,000 a day. But don't bet your ducats on Iran, which is experiencing all manner of economic maladies and needs to maximize its oil income in the short run. Can you say "cheating?"
Ditto Venezuela, which last year booted a half-dozen integrated oil companies, including ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), and Total (NYSE:TOT) from operating positions in its Orinoco River basin. The crude there is viscous and hard to produce, and the expertise that departed with the companies appears to have only exacerbated that nation's declining crude output. With Hugo Chavez giving away everything but the kitchen sink to his masses, you can add another country that needs to push out as much crude as it possibly can ... pronto.
It's important to point out, however, that a continued slippage in crude prices is not necessarily a good thing. We aren't capable globally of producing much more than the 86.5 million daily barrels I mentioned. And that number will slide steadily as old fields across the planet tire and slow their production. Yet the further crude drops below, say, $80-$100 a barrel, the less likely it is that new projects will be maintained in developmentally expensive places like the Canadian oil sands or Brazil's deep waters.
Indeed, Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU),one of the biggest players in the oil sands, has temporarily shelved its $16.5 billion Voyageur project. And if you think Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) will be moving forward with its deepwater projects at current prices, even with help from Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) and Halliburton (NYSE:HAL), there's a bridge in Rio de Janeiro I'll sell you for cheap.
So I don't think our OPEC friends accomplished much Friday that'll affect world crude prices, either for their benefit or ours. Watch for the group to take yet another prodigious production chop when it meets again in December.
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