I've been surveying the Fool's premium service scorecards, analyzing a universe of stock recommendations that ranges from go-go growth companies to the comparatively buttoned-down dividend payers that the team at Income Investor selects for its members each month. And Income Investor is one service that I think deserves especially close scrutiny over the next 12 months.
Amid a flattish market that may well have fully priced in the coming economic recovery (and then some!), dividends are likely to be an even larger component of our total returns than they currently are. I also think that consumer staples, like Green Acres, is the place to be as economic reality (rather than anticipation) finally takes hold.
Interestingly, the Fool's premium universe isn't exactly overflowing with consumer staples concerns. My survey finds just 30 such companies -- yet these factoids also caught my eye:
- More than half of our consumer staples stocks were recommended during the past 12 months.
- About one-quarter are currently favorite buys.
- Twenty-six sport four- or five-star CAPS ratings (out of a possible five).
Something's happening here
That our advisors have dialed up their exposure to consumer staples makes perfect sense. Economic conditions remain rickety, after all, and the sector is home to big names, like Walgreen
The sector is attractive in terms of valuations, as well. Indeed, of the nine S&P sectors tracked by a Sector Select ETF, consumer staples ranks third cheapest in terms of its aggregate price to forward earnings estimates. The likes of General Mills
Cheap -- for now
Sector-wise, only health care and utilities are cheaper than staples. The former is marked down no doubt in part because of regulatory risk, while utilities may owe its discount to a highly leveraged profile. When -- not if -- inflation and interest rates finally tick back up, that dynamic could throttle returns.
The upshot: Though the market is still on its bender, unemployment remains mired above 10%. And absent the impact of economic stimulants like "Cash for Clunkers," personal spending is moribund while the savings rate remains above average.
When consumption is restrained, folks tend to buy what they need. That's precisely what a staple good is, of course -- and precisely why this otherwise buttoned-down area of the stock market is poised to outpace the competition.
How to proceed
Across the Fool's premium services universe, you'll find the best-in-breed players within the sector -- attractively valued businesses with years-long track records of cranking out loads of free cash flow and enriching shareholders with market-surpassing returns.
Consumer staples is also home to generous dividend payers. While the sector's aggregate yield clocks in a bit below that of the broader market just now, it includes names like Kimberly-Clark
That said, when it comes to payouts, we need to watch that falling stock prices don't take back what the dividend gives (and perhaps even more). Luckily, consumer staples look cheap today, trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) discount relative to the S&P 500 and poised to rise along with -- and higher than, I think -- the broader market.
Now, P/E is hardly the end-all and be-all of valuation. And in terms of price-to-book (P/B) value, you could argue that the sector looks pricey. But you shouldn't: That P/B premium underscores strong investor preference just now for companies with tangible assets that, if the firms had to unload them, would actually attract buyers willing to pay for the privilege of owning them -- unlike, say, the garbage floating on the financial industry's balance sheets.
The Foolish bottom line
Consumer staples bargains abound, and now is a fine time to ferret them out. The industry has cooled this year relative to the market's racier sectors, it's true -- a reflection of a market mentality and a rally that, in my view, may have gotten ahead of itself.
Which means that right now remains a prime time for investors -- outfitted with information, insight, and a list of worthy consumer staples contenders -- to spring into action. Sound like anyone you know? If so, I encourage you to snag a completely risk-free guest pass to a Fool service that boasts four smart consumer staples stocks among its Buy First recommendations: Income Investor.
With market-surpassing performance and a steady stream of superior dividend payers, II offers clear price targets and a scorecard of picks you can sort based on the upside potential the team currently perceives. It's a great way to find great stocks trading on the cheap, stocks whose steady dividends mean you get paid to own them. Simply click here to give Income Investor a whirl.
Shannon Zimmerman runs point on the Fool's Duke Street and Ready Made Millionaire services, and he runs off at the mouth each week on Motley Fool Money, the Fool's fast 'n' furious podcast. Shannon doesn't own any of the companies mentioned. You can check out the Fool's strict disclosure policy right here.
