Two days ago, under pressure from the White House, BP
What the market says
Unfortunately, the bad news doesn't end there. There is reason to believe that once BP resumes dividend payouts, the dividend amount will be significantly lower than it has been over the last two years. In fact, the market expects that BP's 2011 dividends will total just $1.26 – nearly a two-thirds decline from the $3.36 it paid out last year.
What market, you ask? The dividend swaps market. Just as credit default swaps strip out the default risk from among bond risks, and enable investors to hedge it or speculate on it, dividend swaps strip out the dividend return from shares' total return.
What the brokers say
Perhaps BP will be able to restore even more of its dividend than the swaps market fears. Two brokers, Citigroup and Collins Stewart, expect BP to reinstitute its payout at $0.42 per quarter, or $1.68 for the full year 2011. At that level, the dividend payouts combined with contributions to the $20 billion spill fund would equal the dividend payouts prior to the incident, according to Collins Stewart. In addition, that would imply a prospective dividend yield of 5.4% -- comparable to the current yields of Royal Dutch Shell
Of course, for investors who owned BP prior to the disaster, a "comparable" yield offers scant comfort, since it's based on a share price slashed nearly in half. Investors looking at BP right now probably aren't primarily concerned with the level of its future dividend. BP is no longer a "widows and orphans" stock that investors might purchase for the income return – it has become a special situation/ deep value play.
Three proper dividend stocks
Finally, for investors who are looking for dividend stocks among integrated oil and gas companies, I would suggest Chevron
You don't need to stick to the oil patch for high-quality dividend stocks. Jordan DiPietro has found the best dividend stock. Period.
Fool contributor Alex Dumortier has no beneficial interest in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. Total is a Motley Fool Income Investor pick. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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