I took a good swipe at Jack in the Box (NYSE:JBX) two months ago, when I thought that management was trying to bury bad news under flowery and misleading verbiage. Given a few more months to mull it over, though, I'm beginning to think there could be some value waiting to pop out for patient shareholders.
Fourth-quarter results were nothing to get wound up about, though. Sales rose all of 1%, and that growth came from strong distribution and franchise results that offset weak restaurant sales. On a same-store basis, though, sales at the namesake restaurant were up 1.5% and would have been another 0.5% higher had Hurricane Rita not made her way through some stores in Texas. On a brighter note, sales at the company's Qdoba restaurant were up 11.4%.
It should be noted that year-over-year comparisons are complicated by the fact that the year-ago period had an extra week in it. What's more, there was also a charge included in this quarter's results tied to scrapping the JBX Grill concept. Still, there was year-on-year growth even if operating margins eased off a bit.
So where's the appeal? Does Jack in the Box have great margins like McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) or Sonic (NASDAQ:SONC)? Uh, no.
Superb returns on invested capital like Yum!Brands (NYSE:YUM)? Nope.
A unique concept like Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE)? No, not really.
What Jack in the Box does have, though, is a low valuation and the potential to do a lot better. Jack in the Box is still mostly a regional chain, which suggests that above-average unit growth is still possible. Also, doing some quick back-of-the-envelope math suggests that the company does pretty well on a sales-per-square foot basis relative to the rest of the fast-food sector. Last but not least, Jack in the Box could refranchise its restaurants and generate better returns on capital. It worked for Yum! and Wendy's (NYSE:WEN).
Potential is a dangerous word, and investing in potential can bring the pain to your portfolio in a big way if that potential isn't realized. Consequently, I can't give anything like a full-throated "buy" on Jack in the Box. Still, the company seems more promising than I originally gave it credit for, and risk-tolerant investors might want to take a look for themselves.
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Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).
