The trouble with predicting the future is that it hasn't happened yet. I'm not sure if I'm subconsciously quoting Yogi Berra there or not, but it at least sounds like something he would have said. And it's also a lesson that management of St. Jude Medical (NYSE:STJ) recently took to heart -- given that it was caught off guard by the slowdown in the implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) market and the recovery of Guidant (NYSE:GDT).
First-quarter results were all basically in line with the company's preannouncement two weeks ago. Sales climbed 18% as ICD sales rose 27%, but fell compared with the fourth quarter. And while the gross margin did improve again, increased spending on selling, general, and administrative expenses and increased investments in research and development led to a decline in the operating margin and operating income growth of just 11%.
Shortly after St. Jude's preannouncement, Guidant offered some information of its own -- revealing that while ICD sales had fallen about 12% from the prior year's first quarter, sales were up 13% from the previous quarter. That, in turn, led St. Jude management to candidly acknowledge that market growth was slower than it had expected and that it had given back some market share -- presumably to Guidant.
It's not all doom and gloom for St. Jude. First of all, Boston Scientific (NYSE:BSX) is going to have its hands full integrating Guidant and clearing up some legal and regulatory issues, so I doubt that Guidant's really back in the saddle again. Second, I don't think St. Jude's market-share growth has been entirely due to Guidant missteps; the products are solid and competitive in their own right.
St. Jude also announced a $700 million stock buyback program. I wasn't too enthusiastic when I first read that news; after all, shouldn't that cash be spent on R&D or technology acquisitions? Here's the thing, though -- the company is already boosting its R&D spending, and simply throwing dollars into a lab doesn't guarantee successful new products. Second, buying other companies is all well and good when you can get a fair price, but there aren't an abundance of small-cap med-tech companies trading at really attractive prices.
When all's said and done, I think St. Jude is destined to be bought by a certain large-cap health-care company that was recently rebuffed from buying Guidant. Still, even if that doesn't happen, there's a growing business here with some attractive products in lucrative markets.
For more related Foolishness:
Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).
