Try to pin the tail precisely on the end of a cyclical upswing and you'll probably end up looking like a donkey. So even though Bucyrus (NASDAQ:BUCY) has already had a great run, and even though the first quarter report didn't look all that strong, I'd advise caution to anybody about to say, "See? It's over!"

Revenue was up 57% on a 93% jump in new equipment sales and a 44% rise in aftermarket sales, but margins declined. A nearly three-point drop in gross margins led the margin decline, since new machines (which made up a larger part of sales) carry lower margins than aftermarket sales. As a result, operating income was up "only" 54% and EBITDA was up 46% -- the lowest growth in all my time writing about Bucyrus for The Motley Fool.

But what might have really spooked people was the fact that there were no new equipment orders in the first quarter and the backlog dropped about 13%. While the company did sign an agreement that will send four shovels to China, that's probably not the order that a lot of people were looking for. There's been a lot of chatter about the potential of the Canadian oil sands to drive equipment sales for the likes of Bucyrus, Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), and Joy Global (NASDAQ:JOYG), and I'm assuming some people might be miffed at not seeing any of those orders just yet.

For my two cents, I think quarter-by-quarter analysis is pretty short-sighted. Almost everywhere you look, you see high prices for things wrenched out of the ground, and those prices have a lot to do with years of underinvestment in production facilities and equipment. And so as long as Peabody (NYSE:BTU) and Foundation (NYSE:FCL) want to increase coal production -- and/or companies like BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and Suncor (NYSE:SU) want to unearth more of their buried treasure -- they'll need new gear.

That doesn't mean I think this is a great stock to buy. I certainly regret missing the moves in Joy Global and Bucyrus, but there are plenty of other fish in the sea right now.

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Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).