For sheer entertainment value, it's tough to beat the analysts who follow the protein sector. Earlier this year we heard calm reassurance that bird flu wasn't going to kill the golden goose, that overproduction wasn't a problem, and that the companies were still poised to have a good year. Fast-forward a few months and it seems like it's the analysts running around with their heads cut off.
In this sea of abject analyst confusion, Gold Kist
This is pretty much a perfect storm for poultry producers like Gold Kist. Sluggish overseas demand has clipped pricing both abroad and here at home -- which makes what were once called "rational" capacity expansions across the industry seem a little more problematic now. What's more, energy, freight, packaging, and feed costs haven't eased up, so these companies are pretty stuck between the anvil and the hammer right now.
While Gold Kist is the largest private-label supplier around and a bit more sensitive to spot prices than say Pilgrim's Pride
And the "times like these" will pass. Just as higher protein prices encouraged capacity expansion, the tough times now are leading some to shutter those plans. What's more, if it's hard on the big publicly traded folks, you can imagine that it isn't any easier for the smaller operators. But that's why this is a cyclical business. Sooner or later, Russians will start eating more chicken again, prices will rise, and things will be looking up again.
In terms of this stock, I feel a lot like I did about SandersonFarms
For more fowl Foolishness:
Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).