Sales up 40%, operating income up 44%, earnings up nearly 17%. Sounds pretty good to me, so why did True Religion (NASDAQ:TRLG) also announce it had retained Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) as part of its second-quarter earnings release last week?
It might be that True Religion realizes the popularity of its super-trendy namesake denim jeans could run out of steam at any time. Investors likely realize this, too, since seemingly stellar growth can be purchased for a reasonable trailing P/E of 18.5 and a forward multiple less than 12.
True Religion has been one of the primary beneficiaries of consumers' increasing willingness to pay close to $200 for a pair of jeans that used to cost closer to $30. However, fashionistas will pay whatever it takes to keep up with today's hottest trends. Too bad companies like Gap (NYSE:GPS) didn't realize they could sell denim for 10 times more with a more upscale label. Unfortunately, most seemingly unstoppable fashion fads quickly fade like an old pair of jeans, with no apparent reason or forewarning. You would think that for $200, a pair of jeans could be washed without ever fading. Heck, they should even get more blue as time goes on.
True Religion is planning on becoming a lasting brand as it opens new stores, expands into other fashion offerings, and licenses and sells its brands at new domestic and international locations. Goldman Sachs can assist it in considering alternatives, which supposedly include taking the company private or selling it outright to a strategic or financial buyer. At least management realizes it should explore its options while the iron is still hot.
Things are going well at True Religion now, and they can reasonably be expected to remain so for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, it's too hard to tell just how long the good times will last, since fickle consumers could very easily switch to a trendier pair of jeans or another fashion fad. As an example, Deckers (NASDAQ:DECK) is experiencing a similar amount of popularity with its UGG boots, but it's equally difficult to discern just how sustainable the UGG brand is.
Perhaps it's my contrarian view toward the markets, but I'd rather wait patiently for a retailer like Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ:PSUN) to turn things around, as would Fool founders David and Tom Gardner in their Motley Fool Stock Advisor newsletter. But just like in the fashion world, there are certain investors interested in chasing the hottest stock around. True Religion fits both molds currently, so hang on tight.
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Fool contributor Ryan Fuhrmann is long shares of PacSun but has no financial interest in any other company mentioned. The Fool has an ironclad disclosure policy. Feel free to email Ryan with feedback or to discuss any companies mentioned further.
