Have you finished your holiday shopping? I hope so, because I've got some regifting ideas for you. These are stocks you don't want sitting under your tree, because the year ahead may prove challenging to their already-buoyant share prices.
These stocks aren't all dogs. At least one is an active newsletter recommendation (so your mileage may vary). One has shot up 65% over the past five months. One is a perennial market darling, while the other has been sent to the doghouse. I can almost bet that you'll disagree with me vehemently on a few. That's OK. A little balance in opinion will do your due diligence some good. If I'm wrong, you win. If I'm right, you won't be blindsided.
Let's see, now. What do I have here?
eBay
A Fool steering clear of the country's leading online auctioneer? That's me. David Gardner singled out the stock four summers ago for Stock Advisor subscribers, and it's served readers well so far -- up 86% to date. But it's looking pretty susceptible these days.
The company is having problems overseas, there was a shake-up at Skype last week, and its juicy PayPal subsidiary is threatened by the merchant-friendly approach of Google
Bulls may argue that eBay is trading at just 26 times forward earnings, but this former speedster is growing its bottom line by just 19% this year, with a projected 21% rate come 2007. If I'm right about many of the margin-munching threats on the horizon, shareholders shouldn't wait up for that 21% profit spike.
XM Satellite Radio
Yes, XM's stock is up 65% since bottoming out this summer -- but why are the fundamentals singing a different tune? The former Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendation has had to hose down its year-end subscriber targets three times this year, and retail sales are slumping. The few sales taking place at the consumer-electronics superstores seem to be favoring rival Sirius
A lot of the air in XM's shares lately stems from buyout speculation that may never come to fruition. Even if a deal is struck, it may not get regulatory approval. I'm guessing that the Grinch may stick around until attractive add-ons like backseat video materialize in 2008 or 2009.
Adobe Systems
I love Adobe, but it seems less promising after last week's events. After trouncing Wall Street estimates for 19 consecutive quarters, Adobe simply met expectations. This may not seem too alarming, but it could snowball downhill if the XPS format being touted in Microsoft's
And I hate to bring Google into another gloomy scenario, but how long will it take before the recent trend toward free server-stored Web applications starts hitting Adobe's publishing-software sweet spot? At nearly 30 times forward earnings, that's a high price to pay for an inevitability on which I'd prefer not to gamble.
WCI Communities
The contrarian in me would normally not want to side with the pros. However, there's a reason why eight of the last nine analyst moves on this Floridian condo developer have been downgrades. This is the sudsiest piece of the bursting housing bubble, and last month's third-quarter report probably told you all that you need to know about how hard WCI has fallen. Profits fell by 73% on a 31% slide in revenue, and it's only going to get worse; new orders fell by 83% during the period.
Selling ritzy homes and high-rise tower units is not much of a treat, but the company's emphasis in Florida will make this one of the last companies to turn around. I live in South Florida, so I can vouch for the likelihood of ever-increasing hurt for WCI. Forget falling prices or pesky mortgage rates -- the latter have actually improved lately. The biggest rub here is that Florida homeowner taxes and insurance rates are flying through the roof. That will continue to drive prices lower, until Florida surmounts its insurability problem and real estate value assessments come down to Earth.
WCI is looking to earn between $1 and $2 per share next year. It's a wide range, and Foolish investors should aim low. At this point last year, WCI told investors to expect earnings of $5 per share -- or more -- this year. It's now it's looking to earn no more than $3 a share.
A funny thing about 2007
Naturally, I hope that I'm dead wrong. I'm an optimist at heart. I haven't shorted a company in years. I would love nothing better than to go 0-for-4, with the collective market sweeping toward higher ground over the next 12 months.
Unfortunately, I'll probably hit one or two right. Last year, I took a few companies to task in 3 Stocks to Sell in 2006. Here's how they made out:
|
2006 Return |
|
|---|---|
|
ExxonMobil |
38% |
|
|
13% |
|
Toll Brothers |
(8%) |
|
S&P 500 |
14% |
Just one of my pans bested the S&P 500. However, thanks to the high-octane performance of ExxonMobil, on average, it was pretty much a dead heat. We'll see how my 2007 calls do.
Again, I hope I'm wrong.
Foolanthropy is celebrating its 10th year! To learn more about our five Foolish charities or to make a donation, visit www.foolanthropy.com.
XM is a former selection in the Rule Breakers newsletter service. eBay is a Stock Advisor pick, while Microsoft is an Inside Value recommendation. Try any of our Foolish newsletters free for 30 days.
Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz never got to name any of his dogs Astro. He does not own shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.
