Normally, when a pharmaceutical company gets a new drug approved, it's something to get excited about. But with the FDA approval of Bradley Pharmaceuticals'
Elestrin is an estrogen replacement gel approved to relieve hot flashes associated with menopause in women. Bradley licensed Elestrin from specialty pharma BioSante Pharmaceuticals
Bradley and BioSante continually mention that the market for estrogen replacement therapies in the U.S. is $1.3 billion, but the vast majority of that market is made up of Wyeth's
A more appropriate comparison to give investors the idea of the market potential for Elestrin is to look at how sales of Novavax's
Not only is Bradley facing micro issues related to Elestrin, but there are also macro-related concerns popping up about studies that have shown some hormone-replacement therapies to have the potential to lead to an increased incidence of breast cancer in women who use them. This may or may not be a boon to Bradley, though, if further studies can exclude estrogen therapies like Elestrin as increasing the risk of breast cancer.
In 2005, Bradley's revenues were $133 million and, in the first nine months of 2006, have increased 5% versus the same period last year. Based on my estimates for peak Elestrin sales to be under $10 million annually and with low gross margins (on account of the presence of generic competitors in the estrogen replacement market), it's hard to get excited over a product that may be so minimally accretive to sales.
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