'Tis the season for snow days, but for-profit educator Apollo Group (NASDAQ:APOL) won't get off so easy. Its fiscal first-quarter 2007 earnings are due Wednesday morning -- no extensions.

What analysts say:

  • Buy, sell, or waffle? Twenty analysts study Apollo. Only one thinks it's a buy, while 17 say to hold it, and two counsel selling.
  • Revenues. On average, analysts expect to see revenues rise 3% to $647 million.
  • Earnings. Profits are predicted to fall 15% to $0.62 per share.

What management says:
Apollo has made a slew of 8-K filings with the SEC since last we heard from it on the subject of earnings. Most of these filings followed a multiple-choice format. Take your pick of: (a) Apollo explaining why it has (still) not filed its fourth-quarter 10-K filing; (b) Nasdaq making empty threats to delist the company because of (a); or (c) Apollo paying lip service to said empty threats, as if it really fears the Nasdaq has the intestinal fortitude to punish a name-brand company for getting caught backdating stock options. Personally, rather than tell you to waste your time on this nonsense, I'd suggest you peruse Philip Durell's strongly-worded letter to another backdater, mega-insurer UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH).

What management does:
Actually, today's table is going to show you more of what management did, up until it stopped filing its official earnings numbers with the feds. We've got accurate information up through August of last year, so only one quarter is out of date. Read it quick before it gets too stale:

Margins

5/05

8/05

11/05

2/06

5/06

8/06

Gross

58.4%

58.4%

58.4%

58.1%

57.6%

56.7%

Operating

32.3%

32.5%

33.0%

32.7%

32.3%

30.0%

Net

16.5%

19.8%

19.9%

19.1%

18.5%

17.7%
All data courtesy of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data reflects trailing-12-month performance for the quarters ended in the named months.

One Fool says:
While I think Nasdaq delisting is a hollow threat, the backdating scandal hasn't been entirely without consequences for Apollo. For one thing, there was the 23% haircut the stock price took when the news came out. For another, the scandal was likely behind the departures of both Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer Kenda Gonzales and Chief Accounting Officer and Controller Daniel Bachus in November.

Later that month, ex-PricewaterhouseCoopers partner Joseph D'Amico was brought on board as Apollo's new interim CFO. He's got his work cut out for him, too. One of those 8-K filings that contained something worth reading was the one that came out in December -- admitting that Apollo had backdated options, although weaseling on the point of whether this was done intentionally. Stated outright, however, was the conclusion that the tax effects of the backdating could entail "significant tax liability for prior years."

"How significant," you ask? Answers new president Brian Mueller: "The Company [has] not yet determined the magnitude of additional past liabilities."

Competitors:

  • Career Education (NASDAQ:CECO)
  • Corinthian Colleges (NASDAQ:COCO)
  • DeVry (NYSE:DV)
  • ITT Educational Services (NYSE:ESI)
  • Strayer (NASDAQ:STRA)

Want to know more about Apollo Group, pre-backdating scandal? Get the inside scoop from former CEO Todd Nelson. Read our interview with him here.

UnitedHealth Group is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation and a Stock Advisor recommendation. Try any one of our investing services free for 30 days.

Fool contributor Rich Smith owns shares of UnitedHealth. The Fool has a disclosure policy.