You heard me: The bears got it right. Know why? Because they always do.
Why? Because bears are what ... schmart?
If they weren't, could they even say things like "a short-term rally in a long-term secular bear market"? Not likely. Which is why, with the possible exception of Larry Kudlow, I can barely watch CNBC anymore.
Really. For all of the lip service paid to the "cheerleaders" on Wall Street, Kudlow may be the only talking head with the guts to stand up for this market in its darkest hour. If you've seen Larry at work, you know what I mean.
To hear it from the rest of these chumps, the last 50 glorious years have been nothing more than ... you guessed it ... a short-term rally in a long-term secular bear market. It's a wonder working stiffs like us ever make a penny!
Bears see things other can't
For example, dopes like us see stocks that are up 3,400% and 34,000%, respectively, since 1995, creating billions in wealth for individual investors. Bears look at long-term charts of Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) and Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) and shudder.
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) rolls out its long-awaited Vista operating system the very same week Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and IBM (NASDAQ:IBM) announce a breakthrough in hafnium-based chips. What do the bears see? More "bear traps."
Now, let's be clear: I can't promise you'll make money over the next six months, much less predict what the tech-heavy Nasdaq will do next week. Nobody can. But I do know that stocks as a group always head higher in the long term. Now, tell me again why the bears are so smart?
And call me a liar, too!
The bears don't have it right. They never do. That's why I was drawn to David and Tom Gardner when I had the good fortune of helping them launch their Motley Fool Stock Advisor service. In March 2002, they were among the only gurus in the "biz" who were still bullish on America.
That's not to say they were unapologetic new-economy bulls -- though I sure would be richer man if I'd taken their advice years before and bought Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) or eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY). No, David and Tom know full well that stocks go down.
They just don't do "bear markets." And good thing, too. Since they launched Stock Advisor back in 2002, their subscribers have earned on average 68% per pick -- and seven out of 10 are in the money. That's a torrid pace to keep up, but after five years, I think we're past the "lucky streak" phase.
Go ahead, call me a perma-bull
Yeah, I bought stocks all the way through the bear market. Of course, I was fortunate to buy more near the bottom. And that's the one lesson we can take from the perma-bears: Gorge at lower prices, not higher.
Even better, if you can consistently buy rock-solid businesses and keep her steady as she goes, you can't miss. If that makes me naive, so be it. Because here's my promise to the bears: If at any time in the next 20 years, the markets ever hit all-time lows, I'll admit I was wrong.
Meanwhile, if you want to increase your odds of finding stocks that will outperform, consider a free 30-day trial to Stock Advisor. According to Hulbert Interactive, David and Tom's picks are up 23.1% annualized, compared to just 7.8% for the broad market.
Of course, you don't have to subscribe, but there is one catch: No bears allowed! To start your free trial, click here.
Paul Elliott doesn't own any of the stocks named. Dell and eBay are Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendations. Microsoft, Dell, and Intel are Motley Fool Inside Value picks. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
