This Just In: Upgrades and Downgrades

At The Motley Fool, we poke plenty of fun at Wall Street analysts and their endless cycle of upgrades, downgrades, and "initiating coverage at neutral." So you might think we'd be the last people to give virtual ink to such "news." And we would be -- if that were all we were doing.

But in "This Just In," we don't simply tell you what the analysts said. We also show you whether they know what they're talking about. To help, we've enlisted Motley Fool CAPS, our tool for rating stocks and analysts alike. With CAPS, we'll be tracking the long-term performance of Wall Street's best and brightest -- and its worst and sorriest, too.

And speaking of the best ...
On Thursday, Pennsylvanian portfolio powerhouse Susquehanna Financial upgraded Indian outsourcer Satyam Computer Services (NYSE:SAY) from "neutral" to "positive." News reports on the upgrade keep mum on Susquehanna's reasoning, but let's  hope the analyst didn't say the stock was "too cheap not to own."

Why? Well, it's been a long time since we last checked in on Susquehanna's performance, so perhaps a memory refresher is in order. Back in March, I examined a pair of upgrades for stocks that Susquehanna deemed "too cheap not to own" -- Carnival (NYSE:CCL) and Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL). Take it as bad news (if you're already an investor) or good (if you're itching to buy), but both of those recommendations have underperformed the market over the last four-and-a-half months -- Carnival by five points, Royal Caribbean by almost nine.

Problem was, while the stocks looked reasonably priced on a trailing P/E basis, their free cash flow was abysmal, which persuaded Yours Fool-y to disagree with Susquehanna's analysis. So far, it looks like that was the right call. But two stocks do not a portfolio make, right? So let's take a gander at Susquehanna's performance overall, and see if it gives us clues as to whether the unexplained (at least publicly) decision to recommend Satyam will pay off.

Let's go to the tape
Turning to the Fool's abracadabra analyst-rater, Motley Fool CAPS, we find that Susquehanna has improved its record in one respect since March -- its accuracy record of 48.1% grew nearly a full point. Yet despite getting more calls right recently, Susquehanna's overall CAPS rating has slipped. Rated 41.35 in March, the analyst now boasts only a 38.84 CAPS rating. What's caused the slide? Well, picks like these haven't helped:

On the other hand, let's give credit where credit's due -- Susquehanna made at least one brilliant call over the last few months, and another that's done pretty well in its own right:

If you can take your eyes off the blinding success of Susquehanna's Baidu recommendation for a moment, make sure to check out Patni. Like Satyam, it's an Indian IT outsourcer (albeit a smaller shop). Also like Satyam, the stock is beating the market. A Fool can be forgiven for wondering if, just as Susquehanna got it wrong on a pair of Caribbean cruise lines back in March, its success with one Indian outsourcer might bode well for its recommendation of a second.

Here at The Motley Fool, we actually think it does bode well. Not two months ago, the Fool's flagship investing newsletter, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, recommended Satyam itself. For the record, our pick is currently up 12% in just two months, and beating the market soundly -- leading the S&P 500 by a good 10 percentage points profit.

Put it all together, and I'm willing to give Susquehanna a pass on its weak stock-picking record overall (just this once), and focus instead on its identifying a winner in Patni. That pick, combined with the fact that the Fool's own Tom Gardner has put his stamp of approval on Satyam, suggests to me that this stock is one you'll want to add to your portfolio.

Take a free 30-day trial to any of the Fool's newsletters.

Fool contributor Rich Smith owns shares of American Eagle. You can find him on CAPS, publicly pontificating under the handle TMFDitty, where he's currently ranked 805 out of more than 60,000 raters. American Eagle Outfitters is a Stock Advisor recommendation. Baidu.com is a Rule Breakers selection. The Fool has a disclosure policy.