Green Mountain Coffee
The company's reported third-quarter earnings were significantly boosted by its acquisition of Keurig, which makes single-cup coffee machines and single-brew servings called K-Cups. Green Mountain's net income increased 61% to $3.7 million, or $0.15 per share, while revenue increased 63% to $82.4 million. Third-quarter gross profit increased to 41.4% of sales, compared with 37.1% of sales in the same period last year.
Green Mountain distributes both coffee and coffeemaking accoutrements. Though it lacks the high profile of retail-centric coffee names such as Starbucks and Caribou
Last year, I was hesitant about Green Mountain, because the Keurig acquisition made its financials more than a little complex. Even the company admitted to "mind-numbing complexity" in the fourth quarter. (I still stand by my sentiment -- it's usually best to avoid investing in companies with confusing financials or too many moving parts.) However, it does appear that Green Mountain has done awfully well since then, with no end in sight. Its guidance calls for a 47% to 50% increase in revenue and a 42% to 50% increase in earnings per share in fiscal 2007. Fiscal 2008 seems to aspire to similar heights, with revenue expected to grow another 25% to 35%.
Green Mountain shares have increased 114% over the last 12 months. It's understandable that investors might think they've missed the boat. After all, Green Mountain's currently trading at 80 times trailing earnings and 43 times forward earnings. That certainly sounds like the sort of premium Starbucks once commanded. (Alas, Starbucks' latest quarter didn't quite live up to those glory days.)
Green Mountain's steep PEG ratio of 3.52 might give value-oriented investors pause, too. True, the company's double-digit growth often invites such premiums, but at the same time, the market's tiniest disappointment in these stocks might present a cheaper price. Personally, I'd want a little more of a discount before I took a swig of these shares.