Third-quarter results from health-care and consumer-products firm Chattem (NASDAQ:CHTT) indeed proved soothing, and the stock hit a new high as management also upped its forward guidance. But while momentum-driven investors are currently piling into the shares, I'm not so sure this is the best long-term strategy.
First, a recap of this morning's results. Total sales grew an impressive 51%, as Chattem gets to count the five brands it recently acquired from Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) as a condition of J&J completing the acquisition of Pfizer's (NYSE:PFE) consumer-products portfolio. Slower sales of "lower margin Icy Hot Pro-Therapy" helped boost gross margins, and the addition of acquired "revenue without commensurate increases in SG&A" helped "adjusted" earnings shoot up 91%.
However, reported earnings advanced a much less 7.1%, as last year's quarter included a litigation settlement recovery related to appetite suppressant Dexatrim. And when stripping out sales gains from the recent acquisition, organic sales growth was in only the single digits. Management did increase the full-year earnings guidance to $3.15-$3.25, but when including stock options expense, the projections fall to $2.96-$3.06.
That puts the forward P/E at a lofty 22 given the recent share price run, which is more than 20% higher than the projected multiple for Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) and is also higher than Colgate's (NYSE:CL) forward multiple of 19. In other words, Chattem is now being valued at a premium to two consumer-goods titans with equally favorable, if not better, forward prospects.
Granted, there could be further upside in Chattem's results going forward, as it is clearly seeing success in integrating new brands into its portfolio, with plenty of opportunity for cost synergies. But I can't help thinking that top-line growth will quickly slow to the high-single-digit rates Chattem was posting before the acquisition. And in terms of acquired brands, they bring stable results but are unlikely to have significant upside sales potential. At the current valuation, I'm thinking the market is discounting years of double-digit sales and earnings growth, which could prove difficult to achieve.
For related Foolishness:
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Management looks toward a record '08.
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This Fool broke Chattem's bond.
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Last year, the company held its ground.
