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A 1-in-100 Investor

By Rich Duprey - Updated Apr 5, 2017 at 6:55PM

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CAPS members who score 100 points in 100 days have become some of the best investors around.

The first 100 days in office set the tone for any new president. Motley Fool CAPS also keeps an eye on how investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best members -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. Because data shows that the best stocks to buy and sell have gotten top ratings, might we also assume a correlation when the best players rate the best stocks?

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is senkihazi, who sports a near-perfect 99.91 member rating. Out of 630 stock picks made since joining in September 2006, senkihazi has 57 active picks on CAPS. With 81% accuracy, senkihazi has also attracted 23 "groupies," CAPS members who've listed this investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Stock

CAPS Rating (5 max)

Call

Price*

Current Score

American Axle & Manufacturing (NYSE:AXL)

*

Underperform

$2.20

(0.19)

BCE (NYSE:BCE)

***

Outperform

$17.05

11.56

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM)

**

Outperform

$31.95

(5.43)

Pioneer Southwest Energy (NYSE:PSE)

***

Outperform

$12.09

5.41

Starbucks

**

Underperform

$9.05

(3.87)

The St. Joe Company (NYSE:JOE)

*

Outperform

$25.62

(3.85)

TRW Automotive (NYSE:TRW)

**

Underperform

$3.58

9.44

Weyerhaeuser (NYSE:WY)

**

Outperform

$35.83

(14.11)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. Current score is how many percentage points by which a member is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call.
*Price when call was made.

Let's look at what other CAPS members are saying about some of these stocks, and whether they agree with this member's assessment.

BCE
Canadian telecom giant BCE was a victim of the changing credit landscape, dooming its $41 billion buyout by a group of private investors, including the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan. The accounting firm KPMG issued an opinion that the combination would create an insolvent company, maybe partly because it would be saddled with about $32 billion in extra debt after the leveraged buyout. When the deal was announced in the summer of 2007, BCE had lost more than 1 million customers since 2004, and its wireless revenue growth was behind those of its rivals. Unless it turns things around, its future as a stand-alone company might be troubled still.

CAPS member amicidelbosco is concerned with the weaknesses the deal exposed, arguing that 2009 won't be much better for the telecom:

Since the collapse of a purchase bid by the Ontario Teachers' Pension Fund the stock has lost its general appeal. The report by KPMG revealed some inherent weakness in the stock's [balance sheet] and Income producing ability in the communication sector. In short the stock will probably experience some negative growth, lower dividend expectations and may have to cover some losses if the economy continues to falter. New lows are possible for 2009.

Weyerhaeuser
The moribund U.S. housing situation continues to wreak havoc in industries across the market. Weyerhaeuser, the largest U.S. lumber supplier, was forced to cut its dividend by more than half recently, while announcing that fourth-quarter earnings will be much worse than previously thought.

Top-rated CAPS All-Star cucselections admits it's going to be a difficult time for the company, but has hope a couple of changes might help.

Slow revenues but this company will likely cut costs. Next year, likely will split into operating co and [real estate investment trust]t. Meanwhile the future revenues (trees) continue to grow a foot a year.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." Every investor's opinion counts on CAPS, and because it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot? 

On Jan. 12, 2009, Fool co-founder David Gardner, Jeff Fischer, and their Motley Fool Pro team will accept new subscribers to their real-money portfolio service. Motley Fool Pro is investing $1 million of the Fool’s own money in long and short positions in a range of securities, including common stocks, put and call options, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). They also incorporate proprietary CAPS "community intelligence" data into their research. To learn more about Motley Fool Pro, and to receive a private invitation to join, simply enter your email address in the box below.

Fool contributor Rich Duprey does not have a financial position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings. JPMorgan Chase is a Motley Fool Income Investor pick. Starbucks is both an Inside Value and a Stock Advisor pick, and the Fool owns some shares. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Stocks Mentioned

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Stock Quote
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM
$122.13 (1.66%) $1.99
BCE Inc. Stock Quote
BCE Inc.
BCE
$50.48 (0.32%) $0.16
Weyerhaeuser Co. Stock Quote
Weyerhaeuser Co.
WY
$36.89 (1.26%) $0.46
The St. Joe Company Stock Quote
The St. Joe Company
JOE
$42.42 (0.81%) $0.34
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. Stock Quote
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.
AXL
$11.10 (3.55%) $0.38

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

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