You know those dreams where you try to scream, but no sound comes out? That's how I feel when I watch investors climb aboard this vessel in distress.
Enormous waves from the financial tsunami continue to churn up the ocean of risk for companies with substantial debt, which led me to announce a gaping hole in the side of DryShips
DryShips released earnings this week, permitting a timely reality check for the battered shipper. The company lost a cool $1 billion in the fourth quarter, after a $700 million goodwill impairment from the Ocean Rig acquisition. Even after backing out a barrage of special items, the $0.43 per share in adjusted earnings missed analysts' estimates by $0.23.
Although the company acquired waivers for some of the covenants it had recently breached, others remain pending, which forced the reclassification of $1.8 billion from long-term to short-term debt. Meanwhile, massive share dilution continues to absorb buyer interest, as the company completes a $500 million share offering and doles out 6.5 million shares in lieu of cancelled ship orders.
Now, for the surprising counterargument
With all of those warnings and caveats in place, we are now free to discuss the flipside: DryShips could potentially survive these debt burdens and reward intrepid investors with substantial long-term gains. Such a scenario sits well outside of my personal comfort zone of risk to reward, but I understand that Fools eager to recapture capital might be game for a high-risk speculative play. If DryShips were to gain waivers for the $1.8 billion in short-term debt, this company's story could shift rather abruptly.
Key to this counterposition are the remaining charter contracts secured during the pre-collapse era of drybulk rates, and the recent three-year contract signed with Petrobras
While DryShips could potentially survive to thrive, I continue to prefer the relative safety of less-impaired drybulk shippers such as Diana Shipping
Despite its troubling developments and weak performance, more than 2,400 CAPS members maintain outperform picks for DryShips. Given the severity of the challenges facing the company, these investors need your help to make the right call. Whatever your perspective on this company, come share your thoughts within The Motley Fool's free CAPS community today.
Fool contributor Christopher Barker captains yachts somewhat smaller than drybulk carriers. He can be found blogging actively and acting Foolishly within the CAPS community under the username TMFSinchiruna. He owns shares of Diana Shipping. The Motley Fool has a seaworthy disclosure policy.