"I like to go for cinches. I like to shoot fish in a barrel. But I like to do it after the water has run out."
-- Warren Buffett
History seems to show that good investing doesn't necessarily mean picking out complex situations or basing your investment thesis on Nobel-level math. In fact, as the current financial crisis has shown us -- not to mention the pitfalls of Long Term Capital Management and many other examples -- too much complexity can often end in calamity.
In an effort to track down some of the companies that may fall into that "fish in a barrel" category, I've turned to The Motley Fool's CAPS community. Using CAPS' stock screener, I looked for companies that have a price-to-earnings ratio less than 15, a long-term debt-to-equity ratio below 50%, a return on equity above 12%, and high ratings from the CAPS community.
|
Company |
CAPS rating (out of 5) |
Price-to-Earnings
|
Return on Equity |
Long-term |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Accenture
|
**** |
9.7 |
75.2% |
0% |
|
Corning
|
***** |
4.6 |
39.1% |
11% |
|
Chevron
|
**** |
5.7 |
27.6% |
7% |
Source: CAPS.
These are just three of the results that the CAPS screener spit out; you can run the same screen yourself to see the rest of the companies that made the cut. While the three companies above aren't meant to be formal recommendations, they are a good starting point to start some further research.
At your services
Expertise: Companies want it, Accenture's got it. As one of the global leaders in the consulting industry, Accenture is a powerhouse when it comes to helping companies transform into better versions of themselves. The company covers just about every industry known to man, and it counts Freeport-McMoRan
No matter how you slice it, recessions are bad news for the vast majority of businesses, and Accenture is no exception. Just in case we needed a reminder of that, the company gave its 2009 outlook a haircut back in March.
But while we may not have a recession-proof company here, we certainly have a recession-resistant one. Last September, CAPS All-Star chronicallyill22 made a compelling argument when giving the stock a thumbs-up: "Tighter credit = less room for inefficient businesses. Firms will turn to [Accenture] to cut costs in order to save their businesses."
The high-tech side of glass
If you don't think "high-tech" when you think of glass, you're not thinking about Corning. Today, the company is best known for its glass substrates used in applications such as notebook screens and LCD TVs, and for its optical fiber used in high-speed communications networks.
Of course, when some of your main products rely heavily on consumer spending, a consumer-led recession can take a bite out of your bottom line, as Corning's fourth quarter certainly showed. But the Corning bulls on CAPS are less concerned with the immediate future than with the bigger picture. CAPS member TzingerToo, one of the 3,140 Corning bulls on CAPS, recently pointed out: "Corning is undervalued at this level. It may not be a big growth engine but they have a research pipeline and LCD and optic equipment will pick up as other manufacturing picks up."
Energy, meet your maker
The business of supplying the world with oil and natural gas has taken a significant hit over the past year. After escalating to untold heights, the price of energy products took a hard tumble, as global economic woes trumped supply concerns.
But even if the energy conundrum has been pushed to the back burner for now, it hasn't been solved. Over the next couple of decades, we may very well see the world's energy majors -- Chevron, ExxonMobil
Nearly 3,000 CAPS members think Chevron is worth backing. While some harbor lingering concerns about the price of oil, most CAPS members seem to think that the low prices won't last. Back in March, CAPS All-Star rpgizzle chimed in to say:
Very solid oil company with low risk to nationlization of oil wells, significant deep sea oil, lots of cash and trading at a low p/e when compared to its 5 year average. Not to mention it pays a good dividend and oil will go up as the economy recovers in the next 12 months. Solid pick.
Getting down to business
Now the CAPS community wants you. Do you think these stocks make sense, or is the community's faith in them misplaced? Head over to CAPS and join the 130,000 members already sharing their thoughts on thousands of stocks.
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