After crashing nearly 75% from last summer's record highs, oil has rebounded nicely. But natural gas remains in the cellar, as the clean fuel is down 30% since December. Why the disparity?
Fundamentally, the oil markets act much differently from natural gas. You can ship oil anywhere in the world where it is needed without too much trouble. With natural gas, though, you need an expensive pipeline or an even more expensive LNG facility to move it around -- without that, you can't do that much after natural gas storage reaches full capacity.
And storage is a big issue right now, with current conditions creating a perfect storm for natural gas. Cool spring weather has kept electricity demand down over the past couple of months, while a weak economy has hung over overall energy use. Power generation accounts for about 29% of US natural gas consumption -- but according to Bloomberg, electricity output is down 9.3% since the same time last year. This has caused natural gas in storage to climb to 2.56 trillion cubic feet in the week ended June 12, or roughly 23% above the five-year average.
In many ways, commodities act like stocks -- they tend to hit bottom on bad news. So, are there any potential upside catalysts on the horizon? A hot summer could make things reverse in a hurry, as could an economic rebound in the second half of the year. If those green shoots flower, it could spell a recovery for gas.
Stocks with potential
Whether gas recovers sooner or later, companies like ConocoPhillips
Meanwhile, if you want to drill down specifically on natural gas, consider companies like Chesapeake Energy
All of these stocks have taken a beating since the energy sector peaked last summer, and all three stand to gain substantially if it recovers. There's no guarantee that natural gas won't see further losses in the short term. But given how far both natural gas and related stocks have dropped, in my view, the upside potential far outweighs any further downside risk.
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