America's grand 20th-century experiment -- boldly converting from an industrial powerhouse into a consumer-driven service economy -- may not be such a grand slam after all.
When it comes to a post-industrial economy adapting to a financial crisis of this magnitude, the world has no clear precedent. The wheels of industry were instrumental in churning our way out of the first Great Depression, and as long as they remain popped tires, I believe that all roads will lead to a bumpy, jobless, and prolonged process of recovery.
Snapshot: The state of American industry
We would need a report as thick as the health-care bill to detail the comprehensive status of domestic industrial activity, so for our purposes, we turn to key bellwether sectors for reliable indications of where we stand.
Fools will recall that the $787 billion stimulus package enacted last January was billed in part as emergency support for the industrial sector, with the nation's long-neglected infrastructure seen as a major beneficiary. At the time, I expressed my doubts. Eight months later, Steel Dynamics
Even without evidence of successful stimulus, the steel industry has rebounded decisively from its deepest production cuts. United States Steel
Mining equipment maker Joy Global
The keystone of Joy Global's perspective is a forecast that, in terms of timing, the end of the inventory de-stocking cycle in the U.S., with its resulting demand boost, coincides well with a likely moderation of commodity demand from China after a major effort to build stockpiles there while prices remained low. In other words, the U.S. is poised to play its role in stabilizing global commodity demand as China takes something of a breather, with the possibility that some effect from the stimulus program will finally come through and carry the torch further. We're building the bridge as we cross it, and the entire world has a stake in its successful construction.
For still greater confirmation, we look to miner Cliffs Natural Resources
Is this train bound for glory?
After the tracks ceased plunging into a deep ravine, freight activity on the nation's railways has improved demonstrably. Not surprisingly, carriage of automobiles has moved swiftly into positive territory from prior-year levels on the heels of cash for clunkers. In a more surprising but welcomed development, though, freight volumes across all categories have improved during recent weeks. If this trend continues, I look forward to reversing my decidedly cautionary stance with respect to railroad stocks. Shares of quality operators like Burlington Northern Santa Fe
Like big engines that could, American industries are collectively forging a valiant effort to climb perhaps the steepest grade ever conceived. Effective execution of the existing stimulus program, targeting optimized benefit to the industrial base at large, would (in this Fool's opinion) come as a welcome shift from the extended gestation period that the sectors have already endured. Of course, after trillions of dollars were allocated to prop up the financial sector, America's industrial base knows just where it stands in the official pecking order.
As the nation struggles to eek recovery from the ashes of a still-raging inferno, the reduced scale of the industrial base presents special challenges to the overall outlook for employment and sustainable recovery. Without a firm commitment to rebuilding industrial production and capacity, alongside a necessary emphasis on environmental stewardship, I maintain that all purported engines of economic recovery will turn out to be clunkers.
Do you have a real feel for steel? Clear improvement from the worst levels to date is a welcome sight, but this Fool cautions against premature celebration. To keep track of the complex set of factors affecting domestic industries, join the free Motley Fool CAPS community and ask 140,000-plus fellow investors what their research suggests.
Fool contributor Christopher Barker is aware that the U.S.A. is just one of many nations that comprise the Americas, and thanks readers from Tierra del Fuego to Cape Columbia for indulging the euphemism. He can be found blogging actively and acting Foolishly within the CAPS community under the username TMFSinchiruna. He tweets. He owns shares of Cliffs Natural Resources. The Motley Fool has a steel-clad disclosure policy.