Hey there, Fools. I've summoned our Motley Fool CAPS community once again to highlight a few of Monday's biggest winners among the stocks with top ratings of four or five stars:
|
Company |
Yesterday's Gain |
|---|---|
|
KHD Humboldt Wedag (NYSE:KHD) |
19.59% |
|
Suntech Power (NYSE:STP) |
12.03% |
|
Melco Crown Entertainment |
10.02% |
|
LDK Solar (NYSE:LDK) |
9.23% |
|
Mechel |
7.97% |
There's a reason I selected those notable gainers, as opposed to other winners making noise on Monday, like low-rated Sprint Nextel (NYSE:S) Stocks go up all the time, but unless you were able to predict the pop, what does it matter?
Our community of more than 140,000 CAPS Fools considers its high-star stocks the most likely to outperform the market.
Written in the (five) stars?
For example, 99.4% of the 631 All-Star members who've rated Motley Fool Hidden Gems and Global Gains pick KHD have a bullish opinion of the stock. In late September, one of those top-ranked Fools, my colleague Rich Smith (TMFDitty), explained why the engineering company looked like an obvious balance-sheet bargain: "The bull thesis on this one is simple. KHD sells for less than the cash on its books, and has a long history of strong cash generation (albeit currently burning cash.) Buy it now, and you are buying dollars for less than 90 cents, plus you get the business for free."
Consistent with that call, shares of KHD surged over 20% yesterday after the company's third-quarter profit fell 76% and still managed to blow out Wall Street expectations.
The bullish lesson?
Learn to pounce on stocks priced for imperfection. It's virtually impossible to call a stock's "bottom," but if you're confident that most of the risks are already baked into the price, there's a good chance your investment will turn out well over time. In Warren Buffett's words, "Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results."
And now for the losers ...
Of course, winning isn't everything in the stock market.
Here are five of Monday's biggest decliners with one- or two-star ratings:
|
Company |
Yesterday's Loss |
|---|---|
|
A123 Systems (NASDAQ:AONE) |
6.75% |
|
Beazer Homes |
6.38% |
|
Sunrise Senior Living |
4.66% |
|
Palm (NASDAQ:PALM) |
4.44% |
|
Sealy |
3.73% |
While yesterday's drop in highly rated Hansen Medical may have caught our community off guard, low-ranked stocks are fully expected to fall hard.
Did CAPS call the fall?
Less than two months ago, for instance, CAPS member TheGrtGdOM warned Fools that A123 seemed extremely overcharged:
I can't believe I am shorting a battery stock! ... After all, [General Electric (NYSE:GE)] is invested in them. But indeed overhyped and overbought for now. ... Is the story of A123 really worth three of the major Chinese battery players [China Bak, BYD, and Advanced Battery] all by itself? I think not.
Following yesterday's market-bucking loss, shares of the lithium ion battery maker are already down 25% since that call.
The bearish takeaway?
Implicit in a stock's price are very specific growth and risk assumptions. Therefore, it's your job as an investor to assess whether those assumptions are reasonable, given the company's competitive position going forward. As Buffett reminds us, "The investor of today does not profit from yesterday's growth."
The final Foolish move
Investors often focus strictly on stock price movements, without realizing that developing a proper stock-picking process counts most.
Over at Motley Fool CAPS, thousands of investors are Foolishly sharing insightful investment tips to help identify tomorrow's big movers. Over time, consistently reverse-engineering winning -- and losing -- stocks will help you become a more Foolish investor.
Log in to CAPS today and start participating. It's absolutely free -- and a lot of fun!
