A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office set the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an keeps an eye on members who score 100 points of market outperformance on stock picks in their first 100 days. Here, we're looking at top-scoring All-Stars who made some of their best stock selections early on, and seeing which ones they think will do best next.

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is expatriot08, who sports a top 95.67 member rating. Below are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections, and how expatriot08 rated them:

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.
*Price when call was made.

Let's see what other CAPS members are saying about these stocks, and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
Enterprise-level data-storage specialist Compellent Technologies last week preannounced that it expected results well below analysts' expectations, because of abnormal seasonality effects and delays in some larger-revenue orders.

Unlike EMC (NYSE: EMC) or VMWare (NYSE: VMW), which rely upon a multichannel distribution model, analysts say that Compellent depends on an indirect sales channel, which may not be so motivated in closing sales. The company's rivals are also upping the competitive ante as Compellent grows larger and more effective, which may explain the pressure on Compellent's revenue.

CAPS All-Star nedliug sees this as an excellent entry point for a stock that had been trading at "speculative levels":

Looks to be coming back into a good entry point and some pricing more along the lines of reality. It's been trading at some pretty speculative levels with crazy P/E ratios, but with the latest downgrade over-reactions, the valuations are returning to earth. Easy market outperformer if it manages to dip below 12 and still not a bad buy in the mid 12s. The company IPO was $13.50/share, and that was before it started making money. The product is still highly regarded, and dealing with the company directly for tech support is awesome compared to the treatment offered by EMC.

Don't sleep on this one
Droxidopa has enjoyed two decades of safe use in Japan, where it generates $50 million in annual revenue. If Chelsea Therapeutics can get it to market here in the U.S. (under the name "Northera"), it ought to have a big winner. Droxidopa has already been granted orphan drug status by the FDA, and Chelsea has worldwide rights to the drug outside of much of Asia, and is in clinical studies to expand its use for treatment of fibromyalgia, ADHD, and chronic fatigue syndrome. Chelsea's stock would appear to have large upside potential.

CAPS member connorsdad418 would agree, given the likelihood for approval and the large market Chelsea is targeting:

The NOH therapeutic benefit (as per Japan) is in the final stages of a phase III clinical trial. therapeutic benefits for ADHD and Fibromyalgia and Alzheimers...yes, those are all legit...are founded, to the point two of them (ADHD AND FIBRO) are in phase II clinical trials. The company is all ex big Pharma from Roche, is heavily invested in it's own product (zero insider sales in 2 years), and is incredibly valued at a total market cap of a mere 127 Million. For a company with a drug with Droxidopa's approval likelihood and potential upside, this is the most likely multibagger I have personally ever seen. 

So far, Chelsea hasn't generated any revenue, and some of the other indications for which it wants to expand Droxidopa's use are targeted by rivals such as Jazz Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: JAZZ). Still, I like this company's chances, and I've rated the stock to outperform on the Chelsea Therapeutics CAPS page.

The full spectrum
Contrast Chelsea with Spectrum Pharmaceuticals. The latter already has two drugs on the market, but generated only $28 million in product revenue between them last year. Spectrum's losses widened last year, despite a drop in R&D expenses after Allergan (NYSE: AGN) picked up a part of the cost of one of its drugs in development. Spectrum's pipeline now consists of two anticancer drugs in late-stage trials under the FDA's special protocol assessment program.

The SPA is a binding written agreement specifying the details of the clinical trials that form the basis of a new drug application. Final marketing approval depends on the results achieved in the phase 3 program.

Spectrum's success here could help it climb out of the hole it fell into last year, when the FDA said that data for its drug Fusilev failed to confirm its "non-inferiority" to a rival product. The stock hasn't yet recovered from that big hit, but Spectrum's products under development give investors hope.

Almost 99% of CAPS members rating the biotech pick it to outperform the broad-market averages. Join them on the Spectrum Pharmaceuticals CAPS page in developing a consensus on its future.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. Since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?