It pays to take advice from people who know what they're talking about.
Mariner Energy (NYSE: ME) got snapped up by Apache (NYSE: APA) at an eye-popping 45% premium this week. As noted in my review of the deal, one of Wall Street's elite totally nailed this one. On March 1, the JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) crew juiced its Mariner target to $27 per share. Apache valued Mariner at $26.22 in its offer.
I was already impressed with research put out by Joe Allman and his associates that clarified some conceptual errors in my valuation of Cobalt International Energy. This Mariner deal clinches it. I'm going to be paying very close attention to JPMorgan's stock picks in the realm of oil and gas exploration and production.
So what else do these folks have up their sleeve? Let's take a look at two of the firm's other big outperform calls. One may prove to be the next killer stock pick.
First up is E&P/pipeline player El Paso (NYSE: EP). That may sound like an unsexy combination, but it's one that can work quite well, as Williams Cos. (NYSE: WMB) fans know. El Paso's interstate natural gas pipeline system -- the largest in the U.S. -- kicks off a very stable stream of cash. The more volatile E&P segment can put that cash to good use as El Paso explores for oil and gas in places like Brazil and the Haynesville shale. JPMorgan has an $18 target on the stock. That implies well over 50% upside from today's share price, which doesn't even give El Paso full credit for its proved reserves and pipeline assets, let alone exploration upside.
Williams recently overhauled its corporate structure, transferring nearly all of its midstream (i.e. pipeline and gathering) assets to the Williams Partners (NYSE: WPZ) master limited partnership (MLP). Williams retains an 84% stake in the MLP, which pays large distributions to unitholders. It seems that El Paso could unlock value in its shares by pursuing a similar reshuffle.
Another of JPMorgan's bright ideas in this sector is Range Resources (NYSE: RRC). They don't have to twist my arm on that one. I've been telling Fools to hone on the range for a while now. Range has a few different onshore resource plays, but its fortunes are tightly linked to the Marcellus shale in Appalachia. Range estimates that its 1.3 million acres of Marcellus leasehold contain unproved potential gas resources of at least 20 trillion cubic feet equivalent (Tcfe). JPMorgan's risked estimate gives Range over 16 Tcfe of potential reserves in the Marcellus. Target price? A whopping $80 per share.
I like these picks, and I'm going to give both stocks a thumbs-up over in Motley Fool CAPS, where I go by the wacky moniker TMFSmashy. Follow me over there, and see what other players have to say about these potentially kinetic energy stocks.
