Growth stocks are the beauties of the stock world, plain and simple. They're exciting, they have good stories, and they can make you a lot of money.
But for all their beauty, growth stocks are also the prima donnas of the market. They can be erratic, they don't always live up to their billing, and they tend to attract a shareholder base that's ready and willing to run at the first signs of a slowdown. For those reasons, caution is in order in the world of growth investing.
Fortunately, The Motley Fool's CAPS service brings us the collective intelligence of more than 165,000 investors, so it's a great resource for separating the Jessica Albas from the Jabba the Hutts. Each of the companies competing for this week's top spot has a market cap of at least $100 million and grew its earnings per share by an average of 15% or more per year over the past three years. So let's go ahead and meet our contestants.
|
Company |
Three-Year EPS Growth Rate |
Price-to-Earnings Ratio |
CAPS Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) |
55.1% |
21.1 |
*** |
|
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) |
57.1% |
47.8 |
** |
|
Del Monte Foods (NYSE: DLM) |
35.7% |
12.0 |
***** |
|
SunPower (Nasdaq: SPWRA) |
15.9% |
21.9 |
*** |
|
PotashCorp (NYSE: POT) |
19% |
22.8 |
**** |
Source: Yahoo! Finance; Capital IQ (a Standard and Poor's company); and CAPS as of July 6.
Growth without good looks
Despite searing growth, some of the stocks above have been stuck with lousy ratings from the CAPS community. Why? Let's take a closer look.
What's wrong with Amazon.com? It has grown like a weed, it has a very strong balance sheet, and it oozes cash. I love the company and give it far more business than I probably should.
For all of the bright spots, though, many CAPS members have focused on one big drawback: valuation. Analysts expect that Amazon will deliver growth of 26% per year over the next five years, and while that is nothing to sneeze at, the company may need to cough up even headier growth to justify the stock's current valuation.
Moving to another company that has ended up with quite a few of my dollars in its pocket, there's also a lot to like about Apple. The success of the iPhone continues to surprise and impress analysts, and the company could be ready to turn on the afterburners if the rumors about a deal with Verizon (NYSE: VZ) turn out to be true. At the same time, the popularity of the iPad has been overwhelming, and it has even attracted some corporate customers including Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and SAP.
But once again, valuation is a concern for CAPS members. While the stock's multiples aren't quite as high as Amazon's, Apple's growth expectations also aren't as lofty. In addition, with a market cap of $226 billion, Apple has a much higher hill to climb to deliver outsized growth.
And finally, when it comes to SunPower, there is just too much skepticism from the CAPS community about solar power for this company to make its way into the upper tiers of the ratings. And the hesitation about solar stocks isn't without reason. Considering the industry hasn't been around that long -- particularly when it comes to the Chinese manufacturers -- we've yet to really see how things will shake out and which companies will become leaders. At the same time, with government finances a bit shaky around the world, there are valid concerns regarding the subsidies that have helped the industry so much.
Strutting their stuff
While the stocks above haven't been able to sufficiently inspire CAPS members, PotashCorp has.
As the company's name suggests, it relies on potash -- a key input for crop nutrients -- for the majority of its business. And in a recent presentation, the company highlighted exactly why it's great to be a leader in the potash business: "fewer producers, less government control and higher barriers to entry."
To be more specific, the company notes that only 12 countries produce potash and only 20% is controlled by governments. And it's no easy feat to get into the potash business: PotashCorp estimates that it takes at least seven years and an investment of around $2.6 billion to ramp up a new potash mine.
The fertilizer industry is cyclical, and recently, the company has been on the lousy end of the cycle. But analysts are looking for a heady bounce-back, and PotashCorp's earnings per share are expected to double by 2011.
But as much as CAPS members appreciate PotashCorp's fertilizer moat, the stock didn't quite have enough to top this week's top growth stock, Del Monte Foods.
While Del Monte has certainly delivered impressive growth over the past three years, if we're to believe Wall Street, then investors shouldn't expect quite the same pace in the years ahead. However, with a much lower valuation than the other stocks on our list, Del Monte may not need more than the 11% annual growth that analysts foresee.
The stock's current valuation could also be ignoring even greater potential for Del Monte. In late May, CAPS All-Star dibble905 joined the bullish chorus:
I cannot, for the life of me, figure out why this company is priced so cheap given : 1. High growth-Highly profitable pet foods endeavor 2. Backed up by its strong core in existing food processing assets. 3. Continued progress in deleveraging firm assets
If dibble905's reason No. 1 surprises you, then it may be time for you to get reacquainted with the real growth opportunity for Del Monte. The company has a strong stable of pet brands that includes Milk-Bone, Kibbles 'n Bits, Pup-Peroni, and Meow Mix. Though pet food sales account for slightly less than 50% of total company sales, the higher margins in that segment mean that it accounts for 55% of the company's operating income.
And while the cash flow coming from the namesake consumer products business is key to the company's overall success, there's little doubt that management is looking to the pet products as the key to growth.
Now go vote!
Do you think that Del Monte has what it takes to be America's next top growth stock? Head over to CAPS and let the rest of the community know what you think.
These companies may all have the growth, but are they truly revolutionary?





