It's your birthday, Boeing
On Thursday, the word came down: Flummoxed by the "complexities" of the case, the World Trade Organization has been forced to postpone issuing even a preliminary decision on Airbus' long-running complaint against Boeing. Expected to declare next week whether Boeing received unfair subsidies from the U.S., the WTO now says it could be mid-September before we hear its decision.
Good news for Boeing, certainly, and for key subcontractors like General Electric
Horse trading
Boeing should give it to 'em -- and quick. Ten days ago, Boeing won an important tactical victory over the EU when the WTO confirmed that Airbus received as much as $20 billion in illegal subsidies from its home governments, loans "granted to Airbus on back-loaded and success-dependent repayment terms, at below-market interest rates." Airbus naturally disputed the finding, and adopted the position that it could go right ahead accepting more subsidies for its A350 airliner, now in development.
In taking that position, I suspect Airbus was gambling on an anti-Boeing WTO decision coming from Geneva next week. Now, however, Airbus faces the prospect of sitting alone in the jail cage of public opinion for two more months. Meanwhile, Boeing gets to lord it over 'em as the only party not yet found guilty of wrongdoing -- and use its own WTO win as a cudgel in the KC-X Tanker competition.
The waiting is the hardest part
To Airbus, the waiting must feel unbearable -- and therein lies Boeing's opportunity. Today, Boeing holds all the cards, and can negotiate an agreement on state subsidies that favors its position. Company officials on both sides agree this is the only workable solution, long-term. It also offers a chance to stack the deck against up-and-coming airplane builders like Bombardier in Canada, Embraer
It's time for Boeing to grab the reins and ride.