Foolishness demands that we don’t overreact to short-term news. Still, it’s often good to pay attention to the headlines, so you can what’s not so wise about the wisdom of crowds. Here are three of the reasons to freak out that I’m watching today:
1) Banks can’t do it without a bubble.
Last week, we heard the sad news that Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) would have to play by the rules and do more to disclose to its patsies who’s on the other side of complex derivative trades. Today, the headlines are shocked, SHOCKED to find out that Goldman can’t always pull a huge profit jump out of its trading engine. The SEC’s big fine isn’t the only problem, but the Masters of the Universe at Goldman can comfort themselves in the fact that they’re not alone. Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) produced similarly disappointing results recently, while JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) didn’t do too badly, but still failed to impress Mr. Market. Without big financials posting big gains to juice those market P/E ratios, you can bet some investors will be freaking out.
2) Seepage and methane aren’t funny.
Life is tough if you can’t work “seepage” and “methane” for a laugh (insert Grampa joke here), but when it comes to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, there’s not much to laugh about. Although BP’s (NYSE: BP) success in finally getting a tight-fitting cap on that well is refreshing, there’s still worry that seepage could turn out to be more than the current level of “insignificant,” although it appears that nearby blobs of methane are not related to this well. Unfortunately, despite the good news, Obama’s ego gusher continues to punish the entire Gulf Coast economy. Oil service stocks, like Gulf coast workers, remain hostage to that executive brain-lapse.
3) Home builders embrace reality.
In a previous episode of freakouts, I suggested that major continuing foreclosure problems were likely to make life tough on home builders. It seems they agree. The National Association of Home Builders housing market index melted down like an $8 gelato on a summer sidewalk. It seems builders just can’t get it done without taxpayer handouts -- like the cash giveaways to buyers, not to mention the tax giveaways that Congress granted the beleaguered industry giants. In the meantime, builders like D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) and Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV) bounce around near their 52-week lows. I don’t expect them to recover anytime soon.
At the time of publication, Seth Jayson had shares of BP, but no position in any other company mentioned here. He is co-advisor of Motley Fool Hidden Gems, which provides new small-cap ideas every month, backed by a real-money portfolio.
