Are These Stocks Bouncing Back?

However hard the market slams a stock, there's always the chance it'll come bouncing right back. We'll consult our Motley Fool CAPS community to find shares on the rebound, examining a specific sector of the economy in search of companies with rising CAPS ratings.   

There are 124 stocks listed under retail in the CAPS' screener, but we've found more than a few that are well-respected with four- and five-star ratings. Those accolades mean our 165,000 CAPS members are confident that these stocks will beat the market in the months ahead, but let's see what members are saying about the ones below:

Sources: Motley Fool CAPS; Yahoo! Finance.

The market may have hit the panic button, but a string of triple-digit up days has made it almost a bad dream. With the S&P 500 still up 13% over last year, CAPS retail stocks have kept in line with that movement, with average returns of also 13% from the year-ago period. Of course, helping those returns were companies like Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), which nearly tripled in value, and Dillard's (NYSE: DDS), which doubled. Conversely, none of the companies in our list helped the retail segment, but Builders FirstSource losing 74% of its value and Borders Group lopping off two-thirds of its market cap really weighed down the returns.

So let's take a closer look at why investors think that some of these other companies won't be jumping from the frying pan into the fire now that the market is surging again.

Some spring in its step
Typically you associate CVS Caremark with its pharmacy business, and rightly so as more than two-thirds of its annual $96 billion in revenues comes from prescription drugs. However, that means that almost a third comes from personal care and over-the-counter products, as well as general merchandise found on its shelves.

And the recession has hit discretionary spending of consumers meaning CVS, Walgreen, and Rite-Aid (NYSE: RAD) have seen sales in this segment decline. The latter reported total drugstore same-store sales falling more than 2% for the month of July, while CVS lowered its guidance for comps for the full year to now only increase 2% to 3.5%.

Even pharmacy sales are hurt as trips to the doctor become fewer. Prescription sales for Rite-Aid were off 1.5% in July, and CVS reported second quarter pharmacy services revenues were down 9% as it lost some large contracts. A new contract with Aetna, however, should help offset some of that lost business. And both CVS and Walgreen were locked in a battle of wills last month as CVS's benefits management business limited the prescriptions its customers could fill at its archrival, but in the end relented.

With 96% of CAPS members rating CVS to outperform the market, the view seems to be it will be able to rebound, and only a slightly smaller percentage feels the same way about Walgreen. CAPS member MSmailbox sees both Walgreen and CVS coming out on top as the aging population creates a "critical mass" for the industry.

An aging population, highly dependent on drugs and miscellaneous personal care products, has created long lines at this store. I see critical-mass occurring, between 5 and 7 years from now. Compare with CVS, another drug store which is benefitting from the same megatrend.

Getting hungry
Grocery-store chain Supervalu was able to beat estimates this quarter through a conscious decision not to be promotional, opting instead to go with higher margin items. It seems to be a program of short-term benefit, though, as net food sales dropped almost 10% and comps were down 7% -- a string of failure that goes all the way back to 2007. Compare that to Kroger (NYSE: KR), which has reported positive comps for close to two years straight.

However, CAPS member nogolf finds the risk-reward ratio skewed in Supervalu's favor and believes the supermarket chain has done what was necessary to put itself on a firmer financial footing.

Food is extremely out of favor. Will come back in. P/E is great. [Supervalu] has taken proper steps over the last year and a half and are now most probably aligned just right to take advantage of the slow recovery. Also, a decent takeover target. Downside risk is very small to zero and upside is 50% reasonably.

The ball's in your court
There are many factors that go into whether a stock is a buy or sell, so it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page. Head over to CAPS today and share your thoughts with other investor analysts on whether you think these stocks are ready to bound higher.

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