It may sell the hottest smartphone on the market, but AT&T
With a Verizon iPhone set to hit stores in January, AT&T's best days may be numbered. Is a long-term short of $T a safe play?
We've posed that question to three tech-savvy Fools, to see whether they think AT&T is worth shorting, or whether betting against other stocks might prove a better bet. Remember, any stocks they suggest are just ideas for further research, and not ironclad recommendations.
The pessimistic side of pessimism
Anders Bylund, Fool contributor
Long shorts are bad news in general, even if you call them Bermuda shorts. I've made money on long-term shorts before -- like when the disastrous hurricane season of 2005 pushed up the price of natural gas, making it impossible for Terra Nitrogen
There's so much that can go wrong:
- Your bet turns out to be wrong and the stock goes up. Ouch!
- The descent into nothingness takes too long, and the company pays dividends. You're responsible for those payouts, my friend.
- You get hit with a margin call before you're ready to close the short, perhaps for reasons unrelated to the stock you shorted.
Those three caveats only scratch the surface. In the case of AT&T, they provide at least two strikes against this strategy: The stock isn't terribly expensive and might bounce up, and you really don't want to pay out a 6.3% dividend yield on a stock with a beta less than the market-average 1.0 mark. In short (no pun intended), betting against the telecom has too much risk, not enough upside.
You'd probably be better off placing a long-term short on something like salesforce.com
The flashing neon "DOOMED" sign probably didn't help, either
Rex Moore, Fool analyst
I know people are really down on AT&T right now. It seems every story I read about Apple's iPhone mentions how badly folks want to be able to use it with any carrier other than AT&T. All we hear about is how poorly the carrier handles network traffic; the many calls it drops; its network's poor reception; and management's deep hatred of kittens.
Everyone already knows about these things, fair or not. The perception out there is that half of AT&T's subscribers will leave as soon as Verizon or some other carrier gets the iPhone.
But see, that's the problem. Because everyone already knows about these dangers, the potential for disaster is already priced into the stock. What, you thought you were the only one who thought about this?
So while the company may have some problems to overcome, I don't think it would make for a good short. In fact, it has a low enough forward P/E multiple, and decent enough financials, that it showed up at No. 3 on my list of the best value stocks in telecom. At this price, it'd probably make for a better long than a short.
I'm not dead yet! In fact, I'm feeling better!
Tim Beyers, Fool contributor
I've been wondering about shorting AT&T for months. At one point, I was convinced that shorting the former Ms. Bell and every other telco was a wonderful idea. I still have open short positions in Sprint Nextel
Strong earnings scared me off. "AT&T has been in a cocoon for years, slowly transforming itself from a wireline caterpillar into a wireless butterfly," I wrote at the time. "Last night's earnings report suggests the metamorphosis is accelerating."
Last month, the trend continued. Revenue remained flat as adjusted overall profits improved 13%. Why? A better product mix. With more Android and iOS smartphones on its network, AT&T improved data revenue by 27% last quarter. Investors were pleasantly surprised; shares of AT&T have risen more than 4% since its late July report.
That's a problem for short-sellers. AT&T's data business could deliver surprising growth for years to come. My advice is to buy here and reinvest the 6.3% dividend until the smartphone market becomes saturated.
Why mess around with AT&T?
John Del Vecchio, CFA
As a guy who shorts stocks for a living, AT&T is not at the top of my list. One reason is because, when identifying high probability short opportunities, I'm less concerned with valuation and prefer to hang my hat on specific accounting issues, such as aggressive or accelerated revenue recognition. I just don't have a smoking gun with AT&T.
I mechanically screen thousands of companies a day, searching for evidence that earnings are being massaged by management to mask a deterioration in its business – and dig into dozens of those. AT&T isn't on my radar. Moreover, while the loss of an exclusive distribution for the iPhone could be a catalyst that leads to lower growth, the timing is entirely unknown. And there's another reason to tread lightly.
Sentiment is a bit negative for the company. Over the years, AT&T has transitioned from a core holding in many portfolios to a down-and-out also ran. In such cases, positive news can lead to a dramatic spike in the price. Meanwhile, the rich dividend yield makes carrying a short position expensive. Bottom line, why short a company like AT&T on a hunch when there are plenty of other companies out there who are playing fast and loose with their accounting – or worse?
Want better short ideas?
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None of the writers who contributed to this roundtable hold any financial position in the stocks they wrote about. Sprint Nextel is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. Salesforce.com is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers choice. Apple and Titanium Metals are Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendations. The Motley Fool's disclosure policy has no height requirements.