The U.S. dollar is dead. There ... I've said it.
Oh sure, if you can scrape up some spare greenbacks, you can still walk into your local Wal-mart and score some Chinese-made goods on the cheap. Whether nations like China will remain willing to hold those dollars and related exposure to U.S. debt is another story entirely, and recently, the structural fissures that have threatened the U.S. currency for years are widening further.
Taking the American dream with it
Of course, the prospect for substantial and sustained deterioration of a currency's purchasing power is no laughing matter. The immediate impacts of injected liquidity and hyper-accommodative fiscal policy are dire enough threats by themselves, but the fatal blow is reserved for the time when those policies yield a global crisis of confidence.
That time, I'm afraid, is presently upon us.
When asked in a town hall meeting this week whether the American dream was dead, President Obama replied: "Absolutely not. There is not a country in the world that would not want to change places with us." Although the statement typifies the upbeat and patriotic sentiments we've grown to expect from political leaders, I find it insultingly disingenuous under the circumstances. Try telling that to Caterpillar
The American dream as we once knew it is still on life support, but unfortunately, I see a crisis of confidence brewing in the currency of the land ... ensuring that the dream remains comatose for perhaps a generation. As we trudge through what Nucor
Cracks in the foundation
Under the dubious leadership of Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve this week reasserted its willingness to further expand liquidity; now that a mythical recovery has retreated into the shadows of a stark economic reality. Kathy Lien, a currency strategist for GFT Forex, explains: "The Fed is actively trying to make the dollar less and less attractive." Although that may sound counterintuitive, or even a touch insane, when debt burdens balloon to epic proportions while failing miserably at triggering growth, intentional currency debasement (including quantitative easing) is the ultra-high-risk, desperation play in many central bankers' handbooks.
Remarkably, in a recent poll of more than 1,400 Bloomberg subscribers worldwide, a full 53% reported perceiving a "big or moderate risk the [U.S.] budget deficit will provoke a crisis of confidence within two years that will spur 'a dramatic rise' in long-term interest rates." This is a key point to consider, because I believe many investors mistakenly believe that inflation can only occur in the context of economic recovery. I have stressed repeatedly that inflation is a currency event rather than an economic event, and I view a comprehensive understanding of currency induced, cost-push inflation as one of the more important topics of inquiry for Foolish investors struggling to ascertain what the future may hold. Stated another way, the currency event that is likely to trigger abrupt inflation is precisely that crisis of confidence now set to unfold for the U.S. dollar.
Expectations of a looming dollar crisis can be found across the globe, and were well expressed by respondents to Bloomberg's global poll. Dieter Buchholtz, head of equities for the Falcon Private Bank in Switzerland, predicts: "When the non-Americans see that efforts by the administration to balance the budget are fruitless, then I think you will get a confidence crisis." Eric Kraus, chief strategist for Otkritie Brokerage House in Moscow, described the U.S. economic situation as "obviously unsustainable," adding: "the concerted attempt to suspend disbelief is playing increasingly poorly abroad."
The race to debase and the future of gold
The U.S. dollar is not the only currency in deep trouble. The euro temporarily traded places with the dollar this year as the world's favorite whipping post, and the British pound is not exactly sterling anymore. The common strategy of counteracting economic crisis with untenable debt places the trio in a twisted race to debase. On the other end of the spectrum, Japan's currency intervention last week to stem the troublesome strengthening of the yen reveals that fiat currencies weak and strong are ultimately embroiled in this race to debase as a consequence of the global financial crisis and the official responses to it.
It is through this macroeconomic lens that the enduring, accumulating strength of gold can best be understood. According to Philip Gibbs of Jupiter Investment Management, "Gold is likely to climb higher as Western nations struggle to de-value their currencies."
In a truly astonishing admission from a former Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan offered this morsel last week: "Fiat money has no place to go but gold ... Gold is the canary in the coal mine. It signals problems with respect to currency markets. Central bankers should pay attention to it."
Central bankers are beginning to pay attention, and investors are just now beginning to understand the enormity of the secular bull market presently under way. Fools have enjoyed a tremendous run of late with high-profile, major producers Goldcorp
Of all the world's currencies, only one is the scorching hot potato that you absolutely don't want to be left holding when the smoke clears. Dodge that dying dollar, and for goodness' sake grab some gold.
Fool contributor Christopher Barker can be found blogging actively and acting Foolishly within the CAPS community under the username TMFSinchiruna. He tweets. He owns no shares in the companies mentioned. True to its name, The Motley Fool is made up of a motley assortment of writers and analysts, each with a unique perspective; sometimes we agree, sometimes we disagree, but we all believe in the power of learning from each other through our Foolish community. The Motley Fool's disclosure policy is a decidedly cold potato disclosure policy.