Time to Sell GMX Resources?

Should you sell GMX Resources (NYSE: GMXR) today?

The decision to sell a stock you've researched and followed for months or years is never easy. But if you fall in love with your stock holdings, you risk becoming vulnerable to confirmation bias -- listening only to information that supports your theories, and rejecting any contradictions.

In 2004, longtime Fool Bill Mann called confirmation bias one of the most dangerous components of investing. This warning has helped my own investing throughout the Great Recession. Now I want to help you identify potential sell signs on popular stocks within our 4-million-strong Fool.com community.

Today I'm laser-focused on GMX Resources, ready to evaluate its price, valuation, margins, and liquidity. Let's get started!

Don't sell on price
Over the past 12 months, GMX Resources is down by 59.8% versus an S&P 500 return of 11.3%. Investors are no doubt disappointed with their returns, but is now the time to cut and run? Not necessarily. Short-term underperformance alone is not a sell sign. The market may be missing the critical element of your investing thesis. For historical context, let’s compare GMX Resources' recent price with its 52-week and five-year highs. I've also included a few other businesses in the same industry or a related one.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

As you can see, GMX Resources is down from its 52-week high. If you bought near the peak, now's the time to think back to why you bought it in the first place. If your reasons still hold true, you shouldn't sell based on this information alone.

Potential sell signs
First, let's look at the gross margins trend, which represents the amount of profit a company makes for each $1 in sales, after deducting all costs directly related to that sale. A deteriorating gross margin over time can indicate that competition has forced the company to lower prices, that it can't control costs, or that its whole industry's facing tough times. Here's is GMX Resources' gross margin over the past five years.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Though choppy, GMX Resources is having no trouble maintaining its gross margin, which tends to dictate a company's overall profitability. That's solid news; however, GMX Resources investors need to keep an eye on this metric over the coming quarters. If margins begin to dip, you'll want to know why.

Next, let's explore what other investors think about GMX Resources. We love the contrarian view here at Fool.com, but we don't mind cheating off our neighbors every once in a while. For this portion of our research, we'll examine two metrics: Motley Fool CAPS ratings and short interest. The former tells us how Fool.com's 170,000-strong community of individual analysts rates the stock, and the latter shows what proportion of investors is betting that the stock will fall. I'm including other peer companies once again for context.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

The Fool community is in the middle of the road on GMX Resources. We typically like to see our stocks rated at four or five stars. Anything below that level is a less-than-bullish indicator. I highly recommend that you visit GMX Resources' stock-pitch page to see the verbatim reasons behind the ratings.

Here, short interest is at a high 27.3%. A number like this typically indicates that large institutional investors are betting against the stock.

Now let's study GMX Resources' debt situation, with a little help from the debt-to-equity ratio. This metric tells us how much debt the company's taken on, relative to its overall capital structure.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

GMX Resources has been taking on some additional debt over the past five years. Even with total equity increasing over the same time period, debt-to-equity has increased as well, as the above chart shows. Based on the trend alone, that's a bad sign. I consider a debt-to-equity ratio below 50% to be healthy, though the number varies by industry. GMX Resources is currently above this level, at 97.5%.

The last metric I like to look at is the current ratio, which lets investors judge a company's short-term liquidity. If GMX Resources had to convert its current assets to cash in one year, how many times over could it cover its current liabilities? As of the last filing, the company had a current ratio of 0.86. That's a bad sign for GMX Resources. With the company's current liabilities greater than its current assets, it could have liquidity issues in the short term.

Finally, it's highly beneficial to determine whether GMX Resources belongs in your portfolio -- and to know how many similar businesses already occupy your stable of investments. If you haven't already, be sure to put your tickers into Fool.com's free portfolio tracker, My Watchlist. You can get started right away by adding GMX Resources.

The final recap

GMX Resources has failed four of the quick tests that would make it a sell. Does that mean you should sell your shares today? Not necessarily, but keep your eye on these trends over the coming quarters.

Remember to add GMX Resources to My Watchlist to help you keep track of all our coverage of the company on Fool.com.

If you haven't had a chance yet, be sure to read this article detailing how I missed out on more than $100,000 in gains through wrong-headed selling.