Numbers can lie -- but they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:
- The current price multiples
- The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
- How much growth we can expect
Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how expensive or cheap US Airways Group
The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share (EPS) -- the lower, the better.
Then, we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). Like the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.
Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.
US Airways has a P/E ratio of 4.1 and an EV/FCF ratio of 4.9 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations with the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, US Airways' multiples turn negative.
A one-year ratio under 10 for both metrics is ideal. For a five-year metric, under 20 is ideal.
US Airways has a mixed performance in hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it compares against some competitors and industry mates.
|
Company |
1-Year P/E |
1-Year EV/FCF |
5-Year P/E |
5-Year EV/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Airways Group | 4.1 | 4.9 | NM | NM |
|
Delta Air Lines |
17.6 | 11.5 | NM | 59.0 |
|
AMR |
NM | NM | NM | 23.5 |
|
Southwest Airlines |
21.8 | 7.2 | 26.6 | 89.3 |
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; NM = not meaningful.
Numerically, we've seen how US Airways' valuation rates on both an absolute and a relative basis. Next, let's examine ...
The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.
In the past five years, US Airways' net income margin has ranged from minus 14.4% to 4.4%. In that time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from minus 12.2% to 7.2%.
How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; margin ranges are combined.
Also, over the past five years, US Airways has tallied up three years of positive earnings and three years of positive free cash flow.
Next, let's figure out ...
How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But while you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared with similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.
Let's start by seeing what has happened over the past five years. Because of losses, the trailing growth rates of US Airways, Delta, and AMR are meaningless. Southwest has a slightly positive growth rate, though. Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 3% for US Airways.
Here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; estimates for EPS growth.
The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us how cheap shares of US Airways are trading, how consistent its performance has been, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.
The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at a 4.1 P/E ratio.
The one-year price multiples on earnings and free cash flow look insanely cheap, but be warned. Airline profitability has been dicey at best historically -- you can see that when we take the multiples out to five years. And airlines are a capital-intensive business that can be affected greatly by rising fuel costs.
But if you find US Airways' numbers compelling, don't stop. Continue your due diligence until you're confident that the initial numbers aren't lying to you.
Interested in reading more about any of these stocks? Add them to My Watchlist to find all of our Foolish analysis. And for more stock ideas, check out this recent article: "The 3 Biggest Fool.com Trends of 2010."
