There are plenty of reasons to get excited about consumer-facing growth stocks in 2011. From the generally improving economy to the Tax Relief Act that will pad most paychecks by roughly 2% in the form of a Social Security employee contribution reduction, consumers should have a little more spare change in their pockets for social outings.
With a little more money to go around, let me dive into a few 2011 predictions for growth stock investors.
1. Google will beat the market
It's been a forgettable year for Google
Staging a partial retreat out of China that only benefited Baidu
Things have to get better. Net income continues to grow, with earnings per share up nearly 30% through the first three quarters of 2010. When you combine that with the passing ship that is Big G's dwindling share price, we're looking at a tech darling with a forward earnings multiple in the teens.
I like Google's chances to get back on track in 2011.
2. Sirius XM Radio will gain ground in 2011
I've been two-for-two in my bullish predictions for Sirius XM Radio
Yes, the stock isn't cheap anymore. Now that Liberty Capital's
If shares of Sirius XM were due for its first off year since 2008, this would seem to be it. However, there are also several catalysts that could keep the gains coming. Keeping Howard Stern, the end of a three-year FCC-mandated moratorium on rate hikes, and the arrival of Sirius XM 2.0 will give Mr. Market some opportunities to reassess the stock's upside. The share gains won't be as ridiculously rich as investors experienced in 2009 and 2010, but I do see the stock closing at least marginally higher in an improving economy.
3. Netflix will also gain ground in 2011
I may have to rent Carrie from Netflix
Netflix hit an all-time high this month. It was crowned prom queen as it was added to the S&P 500. Then the bucket of blood tipped over.
Bearish analysts and cynical pundits have been slamming the stock's valuation and the company's model ever since. How will Netflix compete as rivals enter the unlimited streaming space? How can Netflix afford the content-licensing deals necessary to keep churn in check? How can Netflix justify trading at a whopping 47 times next year's projected profitability?
Just watch. After all, everyone else is watching. Netflix's first subscription rate hike in years kicks in next month. International expansion is coming along. For a company that's merely a digital content distributor, Netflix's moat is stronger than the bears think.
Wake me up when a real competitor arrives. Until then, I'll concede that Netflix's valuation is stiff, but there's a wall of worry to climb in 2011.
4. Apple will go 4-for-4
Again, let's look at how Apple rocked the pros in fiscal 2010.
Source: Yahoo! Finance.
This is also Apple, a company known for its annual refreshes. In other words, as cool as everything seems, know we'll be looking at even better Macs, iPhones, iPods, and iPads by this time next year.
Some may fear that pricing pressures will eat into margins. Google's Android has been a real game changer in the smartphone space. Research In Motion's
I don't care. Apple's hot streak continues. Try to keep up, analysts. You probably won't.
What growth stock predictions do you have for 2011? Share your thoughts in the comments box below.
Google is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. Baidu and Google are Motley Fool Rule Breakers picks. Apple and Netflix are Motley Fool Stock Advisor selections. The Fool owns shares of Apple and Google. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz may have his crystal ball bronzed after its 2009 performance, but it cracked badly in 2010. He does not own shares in any of the stocks in this article, except for Netflix. He is also a member of the Rule Breakers analytical team, seeking out the next great growth stock early in its defiance. The Fool has a disclosure policy.