There are plenty of reasons to get excited about consumer-facing growth stocks in 2011. From the generally improving economy to the Tax Relief Act that will pad most paychecks by roughly 2% in the form of a Social Security employee contribution reduction, consumers should have a little more spare change in their pockets for social outings.
With a little more money to go around, let me dive into a few 2011 predictions for growth stock investors.
1. Google will beat the market
It's been a forgettable year for Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) investors. The stock started 2010 at $619.98 and closed yesterday at $601. A 3% decline may be little more than a rounding error for aggressive investors, but it's a disappointing return in a year in which growth stocks generally inched higher.
Staging a partial retreat out of China that only benefited Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) -- followed by a rare quarterly miss and Google TV's initial disappointment -- weighed on the shares, despite the continuing success of its paid search stronghold and the rapid emergence of Android as a smartphone platform.
Things have to get better. Net income continues to grow, with earnings per share up nearly 30% through the first three quarters of 2010. When you combine that with the passing ship that is Big G's dwindling share price, we're looking at a tech darling with a forward earnings multiple in the teens.
I like Google's chances to get back on track in 2011.
2. Sirius XM Radio will gain ground in 2011
I've been two-for-two in my bullish predictions for Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) over the past two years. Why stop now?
Yes, the stock isn't cheap anymore. Now that Liberty Capital's (Nasdaq: LCAPA) 40% preferred share stake is being counted in the diluted share count for the profitable media star, Sirius XM's market cap is topping $10 billion on its 6.4 billion shares. Tack on its roughly $3 billion in debt and we've got well over $13 billion in enterprise value.
If shares of Sirius XM were due for its first off year since 2008, this would seem to be it. However, there are also several catalysts that could keep the gains coming. Keeping Howard Stern, the end of a three-year FCC-mandated moratorium on rate hikes, and the arrival of Sirius XM 2.0 will give Mr. Market some opportunities to reassess the stock's upside. The share gains won't be as ridiculously rich as investors experienced in 2009 and 2010, but I do see the stock closing at least marginally higher in an improving economy.
3. Netflix will also gain ground in 2011
I may have to rent Carrie from Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) to see the senior prom scene that parallels the past couple of weeks for the flick flicker.
Netflix hit an all-time high this month. It was crowned prom queen as it was added to the S&P 500. Then the bucket of blood tipped over.
Bearish analysts and cynical pundits have been slamming the stock's valuation and the company's model ever since. How will Netflix compete as rivals enter the unlimited streaming space? How can Netflix afford the content-licensing deals necessary to keep churn in check? How can Netflix justify trading at a whopping 47 times next year's projected profitability?
Just watch. After all, everyone else is watching. Netflix's first subscription rate hike in years kicks in next month. International expansion is coming along. For a company that's merely a digital content distributor, Netflix's moat is stronger than the bears think.
Wake me up when a real competitor arrives. Until then, I'll concede that Netflix's valuation is stiff, but there's a wall of worry to climb in 2011.
4. Apple will go 4-for-4
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has been trouncing Wall Street's profit targets for years, so calling for it to beat analyst estimates in each of fiscal 2011's four quarters may seem to be a layup.
Again, let's look at how Apple rocked the pros in fiscal 2010.
| EPS Est. | Actual | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $2.09 | $3.67 | 76% |
| Q2 | $2.45 | $3.33 | 36% |
| Q3 | $3.12 | $3.51 | 13% |
| Q4 | $4.08 | $4.64 | 14% |
Source: Yahoo! Finance.
This is also Apple, a company known for its annual refreshes. In other words, as cool as everything seems, know we'll be looking at even better Macs, iPhones, iPods, and iPads by this time next year.
Some may fear that pricing pressures will eat into margins. Google's Android has been a real game changer in the smartphone space. Research In Motion's (NYSE: RIMM) PlayBook won't be a shrinking violet when it sees the light of day as an iPad threat next year. Macs are cool, but the evolution of cloud computing will make paying a premium for a slick operating system less economically tempting.
I don't care. Apple's hot streak continues. Try to keep up, analysts. You probably won't.
What growth stock predictions do you have for 2011? Share your thoughts in the comments box below.
