Should You Sell Kroger Right Now?

Should you sell Kroger (NYSE: KR) today?

The decision to sell a stock you've researched and followed for months or years is never easy. If you fall in love with your stock holdings, you risk becoming vulnerable to confirmation bias -- listening only to information that supports your theories, and rejecting any contradictions.

In 2004, longtime Fool Bill Mann called confirmation bias one of the most dangerous components of investing. This warning has helped my own personal investing throughout the Great Recession. Now, I want to help you identify potential sell signs on popular stocks within our 4-million-strong Fool.com community.

Today I'm laser-focused on Kroger, ready to evaluate its price, valuation, margins, and liquidity. Let's get started!

Don't sell on price
Over the past 12 months, Kroger has risen 4.3% versus an S&P 500 return of 13.7%. Investors in Kroger are no doubt disappointed with their returns, but is now the time to cut and run? Not necessarily. Short-term underperformance alone is not a sell sign. The market may be missing the critical element of your Kroger investing thesis. For historical context, let's compare Kroger's recent price to its 52-week and five-year highs. I've also included a few other businesses in the same or related industries:

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

As you can see, Kroger is down from its 52-week high. If you bought near the peak, now's the time to think back to why you bought it in the first place. If your reasons still hold true, you shouldn't sell based on this information alone.

Potential sell signs
First up, we'll get a rough idea of Kroger's valuation. I'm comparing Kroger's recent P/E ratio of 12.9 to where it's been over the past five years.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. P/E ratio was negative in period 5 years ago.

Kroger's P/E is lower than its four-year average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued. A low P/E isn't always a good sign, since the market may be lowering its valuation of the company because of less attractive growth prospects. It does indicate that, on a purely historical basis, Kroger looks cheap.

Now, let's look at the gross margins trend, which represents the amount of profit a company makes for each $1 in sales, after deducting all costs directly related to that sale. A deteriorating gross margin over time can indicate that competition has forced the company to lower prices, that it can't control costs, or that its whole industry's facing tough times. Here is Kroger's gross margin over the past five years:

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

While on a consistent, but slow decline, Kroger has been able to keep its gross margin in a somewhat tight range. This is solid news; however, Kroger investors need to keep an eye on this over the coming quarters. If margins keep dipping, you'll want to know why.

Next, let's explore what other investors think about Kroger. We love the contrarian view here at Fool.com, but we don't mind cheating off of our neighbors every once in a while. For this, we'll examine two metrics: Motley Fool CAPS ratings and short interest. The former tells us how Fool.com's 170,000-strong community of individual analysts rate the stock. The latter shows what proportion of investors are betting that the stock will fall. I'm including other peer companies once again for context.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

The Fool community is in the middle of the road on Kroger. We typically like to see our stocks rated at four or five stars. Anything below that is a less-than-bullish indicator. I highly recommend you visit Kroger's stock pitch page to see the verbatim reasons behind the ratings.

Here, short interest is at a mere 2.8%. This typically indicates few large institutional investors are betting against the stock.

Now, let's study Kroger's debt situation, with a little help from the debt-to-equity ratio. This metric tells us how much debt the company's taken on, relative to its overall capital structure.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Kroger's total debt is around its 5-year average. When we take into account increasing total equity over the same time period, this has caused debt-to-equity to decrease, as seen in the above chart. Based on the trend alone, that's a good sign. I consider a debt-to-equity ratio below 50% to be healthy, though it varies by industry.  Kroger is currently above this level, at 148.3%.

The last metric I like to look at is the current ratio, which lets investors judge a company's short-term liquidity. If Kroger had to convert its current assets to cash in one year, how many times over could the company cover its current liabilities? As of the last filing, Kroger has a current ratio of 0.95. This is a bad sign for Kroger. The company's current liabilities are greater than its current assets, which means it could have liquidity issues in the short term.

Finally, it's highly beneficial to determine whether Kroger belongs in your portfolio -- and to know how many similar businesses already occupy your stable of investments. If you haven't already, be sure to put your tickers into Fool.com's free portfolio tracker, My Watchlist. You can get started right away by clicking here to add Kroger.

The final recap

Kroger has failed only 2 of the quick tests that would make it a sell. This is great, but does it mean you should hold your Kroger shares? Not necessarily. Just keep your eye on these trends over the coming quarters.

Remember to add Kroger to My Watchlist  to help you keep track of all our coverage of the company on Fool.com.

If you haven't had a chance yet, be sure to read this article detailing how I missed out on over $100,000 in gains through wrong-headed selling.