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Sex, Banks, and Earnings

By Cindy Johnson – Updated Apr 6, 2017 at 9:43PM

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Will the IMF president's sex scandal become a drag on bank earnings?

It seems like there's always another shoe to drop with banks. The latest: the arrest of International Monetary Fund (IMF) head Dominique Strauss-Kahn on sexual assault charges.

How will that impact banks? There is thought to be a correlation between contributions to the IMF and the price of U.S. bank stocks. The theory is that investors expect IMF money to be used to repay debts to banks.

Strauss-Kahn was once a finance minister of France and played a critical role in the European Union's efforts to deal with the recent financial crisis. Now, he's now being denied bail and accused of a pattern of sexual misconduct spanning years.

With Strauss-Kahn announcing his resignation today, the IMF is left with a scandal and potential leadership vacuum at a time national governments are looking for places to cut spending. The IMF had named its second-in-command, John Lipsky, as acting president. But earlier this month, Lipsky had already announced his resignation effective in August.

Exposure to IMF funds -- and funding cuts -- goes hand-in-hand with international exposure at big U.S. banks. Citigroup (NYSE: C) is the most international of the bunch, with a revenue mix of about 31% U.S., 17% Asia, 15% Latin America, 14% EMEA, and 24% Corporate/Other.

Bank of America's (NYSE: BAC) revenue mix is about 80% U.S., 11% Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA), 6% Asia, and 3% Latin America/Caribbean. JPMorgan Chase's (NYSE: JPM) revenue mix in similar at about 78% U.S., 14% EMEA, 6% Asia/Pacific, and 2% Latin America/Caribbean.

Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) appears least exposed of the big banks. It doesn't break out revenue or profit by region but describes itself as operating "primarily in the United States."

Foolish takeaway
If IMF funding is indeed cut, or the European rescue stalls, that could add to the already-blustery earnings headwinds at Citigroup, BofA and JPMorgan.

Are there more shoes to drop with banks? Fee income is under pressure. Loan demand could remain weak for years. Real estate continues to struggle. Excluding "provisions" (one-time items and unsustainable loan losses), banks' pre-provision profits are in trouble. The value of assets on their books is suspect. Potential IMF funding cuts are just one more issue for investors to weigh.

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Fool contributor Cindy Johnson does not currently own shares of any stock in this story. No way. The Motley Fool owns shares of Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase. The Fool owns shares of Bank of America and also holds a short position in the stock in a different portfolio. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Stocks Mentioned

Citigroup Stock Quote
Citigroup
C
$42.92 (-0.97%) $0.42
Bank of America Stock Quote
Bank of America
BAC
$33.70 (-0.65%) $0.22
JPMorgan Chase Stock Quote
JPMorgan Chase
JPM
$116.13 (-0.33%) $0.38
Wells Fargo Stock Quote
Wells Fargo
WFC
$43.65 (0.07%) $0.03

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