Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of aviation electronics and communications maker Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL) got a 10% boost Friday on news that rival aerospace firm United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) is raising cash to make a big acquisition.

So what: Rumor has it that UTX is lining up creditors to support a $20 billion purchase offer. Of course, Rockwell carries only an $8.6 billion price tag today.

Now what: How likely is it that United Tech would pay a 130% premium to own Rockwell? Not likely, I fear. Then again, rumors have a tendency to grow in the retelling. Perhaps UTX is not really raising $20 billion, but only $10 billion? That would make Rockwell a more likely target. Or UTX could be planning to acquire ... nobody. Maybe what it's really up to is raising cash for a share buyback a la Intel (Nasdaq: INTC)?

For now, your guess is as good as the guesses of everyone else gambling on a UTX-sponsored buyout.

Who will UTX buy? Will it buy anyone at all? Add the stock to your watchlist, and read along as we discuss the question.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis -- even one of our own -- helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.