Is Harley-Davidson's Stock Cheap by the Numbers?

Numbers can lie -- but they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:

• The current price multiples.
• The consistency of past earnings and cash flow.
• How much growth we can expect.

Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how expensive or cheap Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) might be.

The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share (EPS) -- the lower, the better.

Then, we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). Like the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.

Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.

Harley has a P/E ratio of 21.2 and an EV/FCF ratio of 18.4 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations to the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, Harley has a P/E ratio of 19.5 and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 52.7.

A positive one-year ratio under 10 for both metrics is ideal. For a five-year metric, less than 20 is ideal.

Harley has a mixed performance in hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it compares against some competitors and industry mates.

Source: S&P Capital IQ; NM = not meaningful due to losses.

Numerically, we've seen how Harley's valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine...

The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.

In the past five years, Harley's net income margin has ranged from -0.5% to 16%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from -17.2% to 22.7%.

How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:

Source: S&P Capital IQ; margin ranges are combined.

Additionally, over the last five years, Harley has tallied up four years of positive earnings and three years of positive free cash flow.

Next, let's figure out...

How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But while you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared to similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.

Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, Harley has put up past EPS growth rates of -12.8%. Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 15.1%.

Here's how Harley compares to its peers for trailing five-year growth (due to losses, the trailing growth rates for Brunswick and Ford are not meaningful):

Source: S&P Capital IQ; EPS growth shown.

And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:

Source: S&P Capital IQ; estimates for EPS growth.

The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us the price multiples shares of Harley-Davidson are trading at, the volatility of its operational performance, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.

The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at a 21.2 P/E ratio and when we look at its EV/FCF ratios, we should keep in mind that the free cash flow is warped by Harley's finance division. It's heartening that Harley's five-year P/E ratio is less than its one-year ratio. Being in a capital-intensive industry that is very sensitive to macroeconomic conditions makes Harley a potentially volatile stock. While the initial numbers don't make Harley look dirt cheap at first glance, the numbers for this comeback story are at least reasonable. If you find Harley-Davidson's numbers or story compelling, don't stop. Continue your due diligence process until you're confident one way or the other. As a start, add it to My Watchlist to find all of our Foolish analysis.

To see the stocks that I've researched beyond the initial numbers and bought in my public real-money portfolio, click here.