You can make a lot of money following the moves of great investors. They have teams of analysts, endless resources, long experience, and great track records. Luckily, if they manage over $100 million, they must report their holdings every three months! Thus, we can see the ebbs and flows of their stock portfolio (they are not required to file non-equity holdings) throughout the year -- buys, sells, and holds. Why ignore a potential gold mine of stock ideas?
Today's review
Today we'll focus on Bruce Berkowitz. Berkowitz runs Fairholme Capital Management, based in Miami, with an estimated AUM of $8.2 billion (yowza, where's mine?) at the end of the third quarter. His firm runs the Fairholme Fund, a mutual fund, as well as separately managed accounts.
Berkowitz is a rare bird in the mutual fund world, prone to heavy concentration and often long-term holding periods. It's been a double-edged sword: Berkowitz was named "Domestic-Stock Fund Manager of the Decade" by Morningstar last year, but a rough 2011 has caused him to suffer massive outflows.
Berkowitz's unusual approach has led him into a substantial concentration in financial stocks, beginning in 2010 with the purchase of Citigroup (NYSE: C) and continuing into 2011 with purchases of Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), AIG (NYSE: AIG), Jefferies Group (NYSE: JEF), MBIA (NYSE: MBI), and CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), among others. In the case of AIG, Fairholme is the largest shareholder outside of the U.S. government, which owns 77% of the company's common shares.
With that in mind, let's take a look at what Bruce Berkowitz was up to last quarter.
Top 10 Holdings
|
As of June 30, 2011 |
Shares Held (in millions) |
Value* (in millions) |
|---|---|---|
| AIG | 103.1 | $3,025 |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 15.5 | $1,197 |
| Sears Holdings | 16.4 | $1,170 |
| Citigroup | 26.4 | $1,099 |
| Bank of America | 99.6 | $1,092 |
| Brookfield Asset Management | 27.3 | $905 |
| CIT | 19.4 | $859 |
| Goldman Sachs | 6.0 | $799 |
| Regions Financial | 123.9 | $768 |
| Leucadia National | 18.7 | $638 |
Source: 13F-HR Filings for Fairholme Capital Management. *Based on stock price at filing date.
|
As of Sept. 30, 2011 |
Shares Held (in millions) |
Value* (in millions) |
|---|---|---|
| AIG | 101.5 | $2,228 |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 13.5 | $958 |
| Sears Holdings | 16.3 | $936 |
| Bank of America | 105.0 | $643 |
| Citigroup | 24.9 | $639 |
| Brookfield Asset Management | 22.2 | $613 |
| CIT | 19.4 | $588 |
| Leucadia National | 18.5 | $420 |
| St. Joe's | 26.5 | $385 |
| MBIA | 48.5 | $352 |
Source: 13F-HR Filings for Fairholme Capital Management. *Based on stock price at filing date.
Taking a closer look: Sears Holdings
One of Berkowitz's longtime holdings is Sears Holdings (Nasdaq: SHLD), the holding company majority owned and chaired by Eddie Lampert of ESL Partners. Sears owns the Kmart retail chain, the eponymous Sears chain, and 94% of Sears Canada. Fairholme's enormous shareholding -- it holds about 15% of Sears' shares outstanding -- makes it the second-largest shareholder behind Lampert's ESL.
It's been a bumpy ride for Sears shareholders since Lampert merged the Kmart and Sears chains in a bold move to create efficiencies between two also-ran retailers. In the years since, Lampert has been heavily criticized for cutting capital expenditures to the bone and investing most of Sears' excess cash in share repurchases, a formula he has worked successfully at the AutoZone and AutoNation chains but that hasn't yet yielded the same for Sears. Sales have declined every year since 2007, and the stock is down more than two-thirds from its high of $190 that year.
There are worrisome clouds on the horizon. In the most recent quarter, Sears showed that not only have sales continued to decline, but free cash flows have disappeared. To offset the negative cash flow, Sears has had to borrow more money, amassing over $4.5 billion in debt against only $624 million cash. Some of that borrowing comes directly from Lampert: ESL holds $220 million of Sears' commercial paper, $100 million of which is attributable to Lampert.
Steer clear of Sears
Keep in mind that size is the enemy of returns. Successful investing brings the money manager more assets, and before you know it, the billions limit the universe of investable stocks. "Super-investor" almost always comes with "super assets." So if you've got Berkowitz's $8 billion-plus under management, buying the kind of $100 million market-cap stock that I and the Motley Fool Special Ops team prefer doesn't move the needle on your returns.
But while smaller stocks are more likely to be mispriced, any size company can offer value and catalysts. Unfortunately, investors need to be wary of Sears Holdings, given its long struggle for relevance and its recent financial struggles. Even the great investors can occasionally be wrong. So be Foolish, not foolish, and watch out for Sears!
Fool on!
